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Prediction markets for AutoNation
Will Tesla have more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?
May 22, 12:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
11.27%chance
195448056
OptionVotes
14957
3690
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
40%chance
148116016
OptionVotes
12247
8165
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
83%chance
11419905
OptionVotes
4405
1278
Will Tesla offer autonomous vehicle delivery to customers' homes in 2025?
Apr 15, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30%chance
7915760
OptionVotes
1528
655
Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 2027
Jun 25, 10:30 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM
51.39%chance
456081
OptionVotes
1028
973
Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?
Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
57%chance
454982
OptionVotes
3038
945
Will we be able to buy a €25k autonomous car that doesn't require driving license in mid 2029 in Italy?
Jun 2, 12:42 PMJun 2, 9:59 PM
12%chance
353316
OptionVotes
2708
369
By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?
Jan 5, 10:58 AMJan 6, 6:29 PM
72.93%chance
302352
OptionVotes
1751
383
OptionVotes
1557
362
International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?
Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
48.12%chance
171610
OptionVotes
10277
9735
Will surgical robots perform more than 75% of a surgical procedure in a human patient, autonomously, before 2030?
Aug 2, 2:02 AMDec 28, 11:59 PM
32%chance
351535
OptionVotes
995
989
Will I be able to book an Autonomous Ride from Berkeley to SFO for less than $30, in 2027?
Aug 23, 12:51 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM
31.67%chance
13674
OptionVotes
1068
805
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