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Prediction markets for Backed
Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?
Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
54.85%chance
15687758
OptionVotes
4435
2419
OptionVotes
2637
380
OptionVotes
4865
89
Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?
Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
70.89%chance
17425268
OptionVotes
11948
9070
Will there be a government-backed manned mission to Mars that returns to Earth before the end of 2040?
Apr 20, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
32%chance
8721359
OptionVotes
1417
1073
Will unlimited 3% cash back on the Robinhood Gold Card last at least 18 months?
Mar 29, 6:43 PMJun 15, 6:59 AM
96.06%chance
6911283
OptionVotes
6548
216
Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2050?
Oct 30, 12:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
14.67%chance
1066584
OptionVotes
2853
1798
Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2100?
Oct 30, 12:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
48.76%chance
836178
OptionVotes
1331
1135
Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?
Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.61%chance
745724
OptionVotes
2141
900
Will Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity result in US casualties before 2029?
Mar 10, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29%chance
221477
OptionVotes
1103
675
Will Nestle Fix their Quality Street "Chocolates" and Import them back into Australia from UK again by Christmas 2026?
Jan 16, 8:12 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM
11.53%chance
41186
OptionVotes
3011
2751
OptionVotes
1249
1156
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