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Prediction markets for BAS
Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to future poll)
Jul 23, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
48.47%chance
349104364
OptionVotes
1031
970
Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
Apr 21, 4:34 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM
6.38%chance
5392540
OptionVotes
2545
801
"Massive anti-AI preference cascade based on xrisk" by end of 2025?
Jul 19, 10:35 PMDec 31, 10:24 PM
11.74%chance
13258735
OptionVotes
27414
3648
Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?
Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM
59.86%chance
35730149
OptionVotes
2264
2144
Will a GPT-4 level efficient HRM based language model be released before Feb 2026? [Details in description]
Jul 31, 3:58 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM
7.05%chance
8118672
OptionVotes
2083
841
Will there be a country with Universal Basic Income by 2030?
Apr 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
42.95%chance
907908
OptionVotes
1967
1231
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
Oct 27, 3:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
79.65%chance
625231
OptionVotes
3906
1917
In the US, will the base model Nintendo Switch 2 get a price increase before it gets a price cut, before 2030?
Jun 9, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
68.87%chance
254495
OptionVotes
1487
672
OptionVotes
1090
931
Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?
Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
18.67%chance
171570
OptionVotes
6171
4649
OptionProbability
1124
959
based on my taste in music, recommend to me an album, any album that gets over 10 points resolves to YES
Oct 21, 4:13 PMApr 16, 8:59 PM
00
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