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Top stories

Basis Tucson North Leads U.S. High-School Rankings, Nine Arizona Campuses in Top 100

Authors

3

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Basis

Will the CPI in the US exceed 10% on a year-over-year basis at any point before 2026?

Aug 17, 3:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1%chance

133609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3451

100

Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?

Feb 16, 5:10 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

26.54%chance

363271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1664

601

If Manifold changes loans to stop using cost basis, will this change retroactively affect earlier bets?

Feb 3, 3:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

64.88%chance

161389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

976

At the beginning of 2032, will people in the United States still be using physical coins or cash on a frequent basis?

Feb 10, 12:06 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

62.38%chance

331184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

824

Roughly what % of workers will use VR headsets on a weekly basis in Jan 2029?

Feb 29, 4:18 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

91067

OptionProbability

<= .1%

<= 10%

<= 1%

<= 5%

<= 20%

<= 90%

<= 50%

>= 90%

26

23

18

15

5

5

4

4

Will the "Stepped Up Basis" rule be eliminated in the US federal tax code before 2035?

Aug 28, 8:27 PMSep 5, 3:59 AM

31.16%chance

2500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

Will "The Local Interaction Basis: Identifying Comp..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 15, 1:45 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Will the next US president close the step-up basis tax loophole?

Apr 10, 3:33 AMJan 17, 7:59 AM

21.08%chance

4190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

425

141

Will U.S. annual GDP growth exceed 10% (year on year basis) for any year before 2030?

Oct 12, 8:59 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15.33%chance

3185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

235

43

In which country will happen a BDBA nuclear accident (beyond design basis accident) next?

Jun 29, 7:27 AMDec 31, 8:14 AM

5100

OptionProbability

United States

Other

France

Ukraine

Russia

Pakistan

China

India

Japan

Belgium

North Korea

Iran

49

12

8

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will BASIS (the Berkeley ai safety club) still exist in 2030?

Feb 17, 7:25 AMAug 24, 6:59 AM

64.11%chance

472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

75

Has decoherence solved the preferred-basis problem?

Nov 15, 6:52 PMNov 16, 6:46 PM

50%chance

242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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