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By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.7%chance

12754758

OptionVotes

YES

1667

1129

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.75%chance

9327406

OptionVotes

YES

1872

1109

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.97%chance

11626804

OptionVotes

YES

2867

552

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.32%chance

10519439

OptionVotes

YES

1897

748

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

50%chance

11815407

OptionVotes

YES

1704

1259

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Jun 13, 9:21 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

89.73%chance

446762

OptionVotes

YES

2832

239

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?

Sep 16, 9:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93%chance

444365

OptionVotes

YES

2605

751

Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?

Jan 18, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.62%chance

304338

OptionVotes

YES

3951

504

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

Mar 26, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.03%chance

91028

OptionVotes

YES

1566

639

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

YES

1382

859

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Oct 27, 5:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.61%chance

11715

OptionProbability

YES

1249

958

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.85%chance

16610

OptionVotes

YES

1169

959

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By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?

Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

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Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?