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Prediction markets for Berkeley

When will I be able to call a Waymo to get from the Oakland airport to Berkeley's campus?

Sep 25, 12:20 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

225349

OptionProbability

in 2027

between October 1 and December 31, 2026

2028 and onwards

between April 1 and June 30, 2026

between July 1 and September 30, 2026

between Jan 1 and March 31, 2026

between October 1 and December 31, 2025

between July 1 and September 30, 2025

between April 1 and June 30, 2025

by March 31, 2025

20

16

13

12

12

10

9

4

2

1

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2025, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 3:56 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

68.18%chance

273957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

933

Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 5:42 PMJan 13, 7:59 AM

16.45%chance

263386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1373

855

Will "LessOnline (May 31—June 2, Berkeley, CA)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5.32%chance

31500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2497

862

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2028, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 4:01 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

75.22%chance

221354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

976

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 4:00 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

73.62%chance

121135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

892

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2029, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 4:02 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

80.25%chance

17737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

841

When will I be able to call a Waymo to get from San Francisco to Lighthaven in Berkeley?

Feb 22, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7685

OptionProbability

Q2 2026

Q3 2026

Q1 2026

Q4 2025

Q4 2026

Q1 2027

Q2 2027

Q3 2027

Q4 2027

Other

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Q3 2025

37

22

15

10

3

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

Will I be able to book an Autonomous Ride from Berkeley to SFO for less than $30, in 2027?

Aug 23, 12:51 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

31.67%chance

13674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

805

Will Waymo be available in Berkeley before Menlo Park?

Feb 9, 4:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.4%chance

10437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

466

21

Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?

Jan 13, 3:58 AMJan 13, 7:59 AM

70.82%chance

6235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

118

Will BASIS (the Berkeley ai safety club) still exist in 2030?

Feb 17, 7:25 AMAug 24, 6:59 AM

64.11%chance

472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

75

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