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Top stories

FDA Finds Cesium-137 in Walmart Shrimp, Expands Recall to Five More Brands

FDA Finds Cesium-137 in Walmart Shrimp, Expands Recall to Five More Brands

Authors

99

4 days ago

Prediction markets for Best Yet

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.39%chance

86134411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108928

17670

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

15.46%chance

5711934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2194

231

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will the Friend Wearable AI sell more than 10k units by end of 2025?

Jul 31, 6:06 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.2%chance

515300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1872

534

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

49.59%chance

171736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will the Three Body Problem netflix series turn everyone into femboys?

May 8, 5:13 AMApr 21, 6:59 AM

45.27%chance

301611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1243

383

Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?

Jun 15, 1:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.61%chance

14973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1261

793

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32925

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.25%chance

18894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

922

Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?

Jul 18, 7:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.62%chance

12670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

777

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Sep 13, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.28%chance

13428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

971

Suggest me some couch coop games to play with my partner. Bounty to the best games we haven’t played yet.

Mar 5, 11:09 PM

00

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