Best Yet News
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Prediction markets for Best Yet
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.82%chance
99161555
OptionVotes
111105
17339
Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently
Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
14.4%chance
5811987
OptionVotes
2262
219
Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.51%chance
195543
OptionVotes
10062
2804
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
20.35%chance
444648
OptionVotes
1001
753
Will there be a peer-reviewed, widely accepted scientific explanation of how consciousness emerges by 31/Dec/2033?
Sep 2, 10:03 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
27.3%chance
363795
OptionVotes
1096
323
Will the Three Body Problem netflix series turn everyone into femboys?
May 8, 5:13 AMApr 21, 6:59 AM
49.76%chance
321739
OptionVotes
1289
332
Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
Jun 15, 1:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
28.74%chance
181343
OptionVotes
1575
635
Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?
Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
32930
OptionProbability
57
43
[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?
Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
18.25%chance
18894
OptionVotes
1259
922
Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?
Jul 18, 7:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
37.62%chance
12670
OptionVotes
1288
777
OptionVotes
1040
971