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Top stories

FDA Expands Recall of Walmart and Other Frozen Shrimp Brands Over Radioactive Cesium-137 Contamination in Multiple States

FDA Expands Recall of Walmart and Other Frozen Shrimp Brands Over Radioactive Cesium-137 Contamination in Multiple States

Authors

13

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Best Yet

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.25%chance

88143181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106395

18257

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.67%chance

5811984

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2244

222

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

28.29%chance

213651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1592

628

Will the Three Body Problem netflix series turn everyone into femboys?

May 8, 5:13 AMApr 21, 6:59 AM

52.73%chance

311709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1321

302

Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?

Jun 15, 1:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.06%chance

151073

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1361

735

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32930

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.25%chance

18894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

922

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

50.65%chance

7826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

987

Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?

Jul 18, 7:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.62%chance

12670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

777

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Sep 13, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.28%chance

13428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

971

Suggest me some couch coop games to play with my partner. Bounty to the best games we haven’t played yet.

Mar 5, 11:09 PM

00

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