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OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Car chase scene
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Bond tells ≥1 joke
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
Bond drinks a martini
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Someone in the movie says the title
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The main theme song will be sung by a female
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
At least a portion filmed in Canada
A scene shows James Bond naked
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Death of a Bond love interest
Bond gets slapped
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Nazis (neo- counts)
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Bond wears a mask
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Canada is shown on screen
Sharks
Orgy
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A pinball machine will appear.
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Pirates
Assplay
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Bond plays Russian roulette
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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OptionProbability
See a bear
Flat tire
Hitch a lift
Ride through a thunderstorm
fall off the bike
Make use of the WarmShowers network
Exceed a speed of 35mph
Have sex while on tour
Cycle >65 miles in one day
Learn interesting lore from a local in at least one place you pass through
Get sunburnt
Be chased by a dog
Receive a gift from someone you meet along the way [not including social gestures, see comments]
Someone you meet irl invites you to stay at their home (including camping on their property)
Encounter snow (via active precipitation OR unmelted on side of road)
rained on
Broken spoke
Try a new food and love it!
Encounter road closure
See a snake
someone honks at you (from a car, while on your bicycle)
Someone shouts encouragement from a vehicle
See a cat with 3+ kittens
Eat more than 5,000 kcals in a single day
make it all the way to the Atlantic with at least 90% of the distance covered by bike/foot
End the trip at a lower weight than you started (<65kg)
Meet an online friend IRL
Notice a custom license plate that you find funny
Make it to the end without any further broken spokes
experience temperatures above 100°F (38°C)
Someone shouts verbal abuse from a vehicle
Poop somewhere that isn’t a toilet or portapotty
Three or more flat tires
Try a new food and hate it!
Cry
Cycle >110 miles in one day
Meet a manifold user IRL (who I haven't met before)
Have animals access your food while camping
get invited to someone's church
Broken chain
Something that is not the whole bike gets stolen (wheel, lights, money, phone, etc)
3 people you meet join Manifold to participate in this market
End the trip at a higher weight than you started (>65kg)
Divert or delay route due to wildfire and/or poor air quality due to smoke
Get rash from poison oak or poison ivy
Get ill enough that you skip a day.
10 or more flat tires (current running total: 5)
Get pulled over / stopped by police [while on bicycle]
Someone you meet joins Manifold to bet on this market and is still active on the site (betting 3+ days/week) when all options resolve
Observe, divert route or delay because of a tornado
Have bike stolen
Someone asks if you know Prince Harry
Be hit by an automobile
Buy a new bike
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OptionProbability
Getting depressed
Starting a new hobby
Getting a certification/degree
Breaking a personal record/achievement
Meeting a celebrity
Recovering from depression
Having sex
Going on 3 dates
Attending a funeral
eat a banana
Eating a shrimp
eat meat of any bird
Getting vaccinated
Winning a prize/money/giveaway
Getting a sincere compliment from a stranger on the street
Being happy
Reading 3 books
Stopping with therapy
Having sex in a different country
Eating a potato chip
Use a contraceptive (condom, pill, etc)
Getting a new job
Crying at the cinema
Having sex with 3 different people
Losing my mana streak
Getting a new house
Finding money on the street
Getting a new car
Running an official running event
Breaking the screen of my smartphone
Using LSD with someone who hasn't done it before
Either donating more to charity, or donating to a more cost effective charity, than last year
Trying 3 new recreational drugs
Losing or gaining weight (more than 5kg, now 72.8kg)
Getting a new girlfriend
Going on a holiday alone
Doing drugs with my mother
Receiving a text message or call from someone who I haven't spoken in 3+ years
Joining a sports team/club
Joining a new or other political party
Getting drinks with my first ex-girlfriend
Losing another family member
Getting Covid-19
Crashing in a 2nd bicycle accident
Learning a new language
Making a viral social media post
Being mistaken for someone famous
Winning a competition/award
Starting a blog/substack/podcast
Experiencing a natural disaster
Getting a new nickname at my future job
Getting a game console
Starting a side business
Moving to a different city/country
Developing a chronic health condition
Attending an Ayahuasca ceremony
Getting shit on by a bird
Hospitalized (24H+)
Getting someone pregnant
Getting hearing aids
Getting a medical operation
Getting back with my ex
Experiencing war
Getting a STD
Getting a new pet
Attending a wedding
Getting married/engaged
Attending a baby shower
Having more than 10K streams on an AI song I made
Deciding to get an abortion
Suing a contraceptive company because the contraceptive failed.
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OptionProbability
An Aston Martin
Aston Martin DB Series
A car also capable of driving itself
A Land Rover
A convertible car
A motorcyle
An unpowered parachute
A motorboat
Off-road vehicle
Any rover (Range, Land, Mars, moon, etc.)
Aston Martin Lagonda
A helicopter
A jet aircraft
A penis shaped car
An electric scooter (e.g. bird/lime)
A drone/quadcopter
A sailboat
A BMW
Aston Martin Valhalla
Aston Martin Valkyrie
Aston Martin Vantage
A hang glider, wingsuit, or other unpowered gliding aircraft.
A Sea-Doo/JetSki
A zipline
A glider/sailplane
An excavator
A combustion scooter (e.g. vespa)
A taxi cab
An EMS vehicle (police car, ambulance, fire truck)
A kidnapper van
A litter/sedan chair
A race car specifically designed for racing like F1 or Nascar
A train
A Pedal bicycle
A Semi-Truck
A tank
A fixed wing single-engine aircraft
A tilt-rotor aircraft
A hydrofoil
A gyrocopter
A bus
A pair of skis
A toboggan
A hot air balloon
A golf cart
A Lada
A wheelchair
A submarine
A jetpack
A beast of burden
A Bentley
A Rolls-Royce
A vehicle integrated into footwear, such as heelys or jet boots.
A motherfucking plane full of moterfucking snakes
A spacecraft
A snowmobile
A blimp
A bulldozer
A mech
A tow truck
A Segway
A rickshaw
A chariot
piggyback ride
A Zamboni
A hyperloop capsule
A unicycle
A SpaceX Starship
A push scooter (e.g. Razor)
A Tesla
House with balloons attached to it (like the movie Up)
A pedal-powered duck boat
Cybertruck
A hoverboard
A trike
A Zorb
The Oscar Mayer Wienermobile
A penny-farthing
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OptionProbability
2026
2027
2025
2030 or later
2028
2029
2024
42
28
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8
6
6
1
OptionProbability
Claude completes Mt. Moon before step count reaches 10,000.
Claude gets the Cascade Badge
Claude teaches a Pokemon CUT
Claude teaches a Pokemon DIG
Claude boards the S. S. Anne
Claude defeats Misty before the step counter reaches 10,000.
Claude boards the S. S. Anne before 12,500 steps.
Claude boards the S. S. Anne before 15,000 steps.
Claude gets HM 01 - Cut before 12500 steps.
Claude gets HM 01 - Cut before 15000 steps.
Claude gets HM 01 - Cut before 20000 steps.
Claude beats his rival on S. S. Anne.
Claude teaches an Oddish CUT.
Claude gets to 15,000 steps.
Claude evolves a Pokémon to its final form.
Claude gets to 20,000 steps.
Claude gets to 25,000 steps.
Claude gets the Thunder Badge
Claude enters Vermillion Gym before 15,000 steps.
Claude enters Vermillion Gym before 17,000 steps.
Claude CUTs a cuttable tree
Claude gets to 30,000 steps.
Claude navigates a dungeon without getting lost.
Claude uses a Rare Candy to level up a Pokémon.
Claude enters Rock Tunnel.
Claude leaves a location using DIG.
Claude gets the Rainbow Badge
Claude gets the Soul Badge
Claude teaches a Pokemon FLASH (with the HM).
Claude obtains a Bicycle
Claude teaches a Pidgey CUT.
Claude trades a Pokémon with an NPC.
Claude teaches a Pokemon SURF (with the HM)
Claude uses a Master Ball to catch a Pokémon.
Claude acquires the Lift Key for the Team Rocket Hideout.
Claude catches a Legendary Pokémon.
Claude teaches a Charmeleon CUT.
Claude defeats the Elite Four and becomes the Pokémon Champion.
Claude catches a Pikachu.
Claude obtains all eight gym badges.
Claude completes the Pokédex.
Claude catches a shiny Pokémon.
Claude enters Vermillion Gym before 13000 steps.
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OptionProbability
A Deutche Bahn train is delayed ***
We get an episode of The Snack Zone
Someone mentions Brian McManus
This season has more than five episodes
Sam says "We are so back" **
An athlete says that any athlete needs to "lock in" **
Toby introduces a mathematical concept
Amy from Wendover Productions is mentioned
The season features 3 distinct POVs
This season has more than six episodes
The game feature the original Tag zone map
Brian mentions Trump or Biden
Someone mentions Joseph, Scotty or Tom
An athlete mentions "cooked goose" **
Ben gets drunk (canonically)
Someone says "that's just how the jets lag" **
Adam wears a wig
We get an episode of the Zodiac Zone
Adam sings part of "Let's go to the beach, each (Starships)"
An athlete has to answer a riddle
One of the teams reaches their destination
Someone eats fondue
Sam mentions Formula One
An athlete rides a bicycle
This season has more than seven episodes
The season has more than 7 episodes
The season has more than 6 days of real-time game time
We get an episode of Choo Choo Chew
An athlete travels by boat (A->B)
An athlete swims
One of the Jet Leg trio tweets about this market before the finale*
We get an episode of Ben's Shower Corner
Michelle mentions astrology
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OptionVotes
NO
YES
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
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