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Booking Holdings News

    Prediction markets for Booking Holdings

    Is Kamala Harris' officially reported genealogy misleading?

    Sep 27, 5:13 AMSep 27, 6:59 AM
    597269

    OptionProbability

    NO

    YES, (at least previously) unknown to Kamala Harris

    YES, intentional deception by Kamala Harris

    85

    12

    3

    What books will my son enjoy reading?

    Sep 24, 3:09 PMOct 1, 3:59 AM
    445100

    OptionProbability

    The Last Unicorn by Peter Beagle

    Alcatraz versus the Evil Librarians by Brandon Sanderson

    The Amulet of Samarkand by Jonathan Stroud

    The Mysterious Benedict Society by Trenton Stewart

    The Rithmatist by Brandon Sanderson

    Sabriel by Garth Nix

    The Phantom Tollbooth by Norton Juster

    Holes by Louis Sachar

    Ender's Game by Orson Scott Card

    Mistborn by Brandon Sanderson

    Small Gods by Terry Pratchett

    Animorphs (series) by K. A. Applegate

    Have Spacesuit Will Travel by Robert Heinlein

    The Witches by Roald Dahl

    Call of the Wild by Jack London

    Watership Down by Richard Adams

    The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes by Arthur Conan Doyle

    Harry Potter and the methods of rationality by Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Something Wicked This Way Comes by Ray Bradbury

    The Scarlet Pimpernel by Baroness Orczy

    The Dark Lord of Derkholm by Diana Wynn Jones

    Howl’s Moving Castle by Diana Wynn Jones

    Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir

    Jurassic Park by Michael Crichton

    Airborne by Kenneth Oppel

    Eagle of the Ninth by Rosemary Sutcliffe

    Mr Midshipman Hornblower by C S Forester

    Mythology by Edith Hamilton

    A Magical Girl Retires by Park Seolyeon

    The Paper Menagerie and Other Stories by Ken Liu

    Tales of the Unexpected by Roald Dahl

    Magician: Apprentice by Raymond E. Feist

    Andromeda Strain by Michael Chriton

    The Martian by Andy Weir

    The Culture series by Iain M Banks

    On Basilisk Station (Honor Harrington #1) by David Weber

    A Wizard of Earthsea by Ursula LeGuin

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    86

    85

    84

    82

    81

    80

    80

    70

    70

    65

    61

    59

    55

    55

    54

    54

    51

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    45

    37

    34

    31

    0

    Greenland changes and development multi market, all due June 30 2028

    Jan 14, 9:47 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
    224510

    OptionProbability

    GDP > 4b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)

    Cabinet level current us official visits greenland

    Google trends for Greenland, judged at each January, never exceeds the search volume of Jan 2025, USA up to and including 2028

    Trump visits greenland

    GDP > 5b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)

    20+ story building built

    Greenland has a positive annual migration rate (-4.9/1000 in 2024)

    Us has another military base at least 500 personnel

    Thule Air Force Base expands to over 3000 personnel at least part of the year, up from 600 now

    Greenland population is <80% ethnic greenlander (88% in 2025)

    Greenland citizens receive money or other financial benefits from us gov

    Greenland population falls below 40000

    Chinese national population of Greenland exceeds 200

    Greenland has 2 or more registered air flight carriers (1 in 2024)

    Greenland has a military

    Greenland significantly changes its flag

    Military conflict over Greenland at least 5 casualties involving two+ conflicting powers

    Current Greenland political borders change so that another country has a piece of it

    Gains nuclear power station. Excluding military vessels. Portable is okay

    USD is the used currency

    40+ story building built

    81

    80

    51

    49

    39

    28

    25

    23

    22

    21

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    19

    14

    14

    14

    10

    7

    Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

    May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM
    50.5%chance
    442809

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1066

    868

    Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

    Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
    76.19%chance
    191852

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1010

    851

    Who will be the Trump political heir?

    Jan 22, 4:37 AMApr 11, 3:59 AM
    8812

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Barron William Trump

    Donald John Trump Jr.

    Eric Frederick Trump

    Tiffany Ariana Trump

    Ivana Marie “Ivanka” Trump

    30

    23

    16

    14

    12

    4

    Will JD Vance mention ‘If anyone builds it everyone dies’ by Nate Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky before 2026?

    Jun 25, 1:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    36.21%chance
    16363

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    133

    75

    Will Glinda and Elphaba kiss in Wicked: For Good?

    Jun 7, 6:32 PMNov 28, 7:26 PM
    30%chance
    8320

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    153

    65

    Previously unpublished Cormac McCarthy work released before 2028?

    May 21, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    55.23%chance
    7215

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    622

    577

    In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

    Nov 15, 4:05 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
    472

    OptionProbability

    2025

    2026

    2027

    2028

    80

    59

    59

    45

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