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Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?
May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
11.88%chance
232149
OptionVotes
2724
367
Will an Indian science fiction film make a billion dollars at the global box office this decade?
Aug 1, 4:44 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM
15.97%chance
281263
OptionVotes
1470
848
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear in a movie that grosses over $20M at the box office before 2028?
Jul 13, 11:47 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM
18.39%chance
29941
OptionVotes
1099
959
OptionVotes
1504
665
OptionVotes
1053
738
I have been entrusted with an AI in a Box. Should I let it out? [Resolves to superintelligence]
Nov 27, 11:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
34.83%chance
12502
OptionVotes
1039
957
Will Jake Paul and Logan Paul compete against one another in a boxing match before the end of 2026?
Jul 28, 1:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
26.35%chance
11381
OptionVotes
1100
954
Will the value of any of the cards printed in the Magic: 30th Anniversary set exceed the price of an MSRP sealed booster box by the end of 2027?
Oct 4, 5:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
74%chance
10233
OptionVotes
1123
930
Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.
Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
35.83%chance
12105
OptionVotes
1056
965
Will the American Boxing Revival Act of 2025 (ABRA) be signed into law by July 4, 2026.
Jul 28, 7:15 PMJul 4, 11:59 PM
52.46%chance
271
OptionVotes
1051
952
Will "Foom & Doom 1: “Brain in a box in a basement”" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jun 24, 6:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
110
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will "Why White-Box Redteaming Makes Me Feel Weird" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jun 3, 5:51 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.25%chance
13
OptionVotes
1003
983
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