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Prediction markets for Broader
OptionVotes
60647
2307
OptionVotes
23237
879
Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.63%chance
3315534
OptionVotes
15062
6649
Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?
May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM
28.61%chance
65770
OptionVotes
12116
9018
Will the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?
May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM
32.76%chance
43511
OptionVotes
12331
8645
OptionVotes
900
11
Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?
Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
72.1%chance
281123
OptionVotes
993
955
OptionProbability
80
66
66
66
65
62
55
55
55
52
48
48
47
47
43
40
36
36
33
32
OptionVotes
493
58
Will this Angine de Poitrine video get more views than the number of inhabitants of the Tokyo metro area within a year?
Aug 3, 10:29 AMAug 3, 10:23 AM
37.84%chance
7825
OptionVotes
1496
390
Will "Banning Said Achmiz (and broader thoughts on ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Aug 23, 1:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
10.3%chance
2350
OptionVotes
1350
952
OptionProbability
17
17
17
17
17
17
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