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Prediction markets for Broader
OptionVotes
17739
1192
OptionVotes
31877
3892
OptionVotes
1165
1052
Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.27%chance
217018
OptionVotes
13559
7386
Will the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?
May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM
32.79%chance
33501
OptionVotes
12321
8650
Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?
May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM
28.58%chance
42706
OptionVotes
12128
9013
OptionVotes
800
13
Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?
Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
70.56%chance
261072
OptionVotes
1014
904
OptionProbability
80
66
66
66
65
62
55
55
55
52
48
48
47
47
43
40
36
36
33
32
Will "Banning Said Achmiz (and broader thoughts on ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Aug 23, 1:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
10.3%chance
2350
OptionVotes
1350
952
OptionVotes
291
34
OptionProbability
17
17
17
17
17
17
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