OptionProbability
January 20, 2029 (Whole term)
January 20, 2026 (First year)
January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)
February 20, 2025 (First month)
April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)
71
16
0
Israel and Iran go to war again
Iran strikes Israel with missiles
Iran strikes US bases
Iran strikes US bases and kills at least one American
The US launches airstrikes on three different days
Ayatollah Khamenei is removed from power
The Strait of Hormuz is mined or otherwise closed
The US launches airstrikes
Oil futures exceed 80.00 according to https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil
The US launches airstrikes on March 7 (UTC)
The Strait of Hormuz is mined
Any state bordering the Persian Gulf launches an attack on Iran
Oil futures exceed 100.00 according to https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil
Significant protests are reported in February and March
The rial loses 1/3 the value it had on January 1, 2026 (unofficially / on the black market)
US ground troops enter Iran
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is killed
There is a full week without airstrikes or other notable combat in March
100
51
21
15
12
2
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1196
488
192
52
