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CAKE News

    Prediction markets for CAKE

    OptionProbability

    Ron Weasley is a redhead

    Harry Potter is white

    Snape is black

    At least one named character from the book has their race changed

    Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British

    A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)

    McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)

    Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"

    Premieres in 2027

    Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode

    Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him

    Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)

    Arthur Weasley is shown on screen

    Malfoy has white blonde hair

    There’s a scene set before Harry is born

    Fred and George are twins irl

    JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer

    The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured

    Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes

    Peeves is a reoccurring character

    Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen

    It's woke

    An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show

    Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2

    Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"

    A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry

    Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

    mandrake root on screen

    80% or higher on rotten tomatoes

    Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented

    Hermione is white

    A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen

    A house elf is shown on screen

    Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name

    Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot

    The Quibbler is shown or mentioned

    An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show

    It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year

    At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped

    Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode

    Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits

    Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures

    It ends on a cliff hanger

    The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying

    Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode

    An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen

    Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1

    The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.

    Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s

    Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings

    90% or higher on rotten tomatoes

    Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3

    At least one of the actors is transgender

    The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word

    Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting

    VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE

    Dobby makes an appearance

    Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)

    We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts

    Premieres in 2026

    "Voldemort" has a silent "t"

    Awkwafina is cast in the show

    Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1

    We get AGI before it premieres

    Voldemort is a woman

    Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability

    Keir Starmer is in it

    Features an explicitly transgender character

    Fred and George have the same actor

    JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance

    Zendaya is cast in the show

    Hermione is black

    Smartphone shown within Hogwarts

    There will be seven CGI dwarves

    Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity

    Hermione is Indian

    Gandalf is black

    Hagrid is black

    Yudkowsky makes an appearance

    HPMOR is referenced

    One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.

    Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender

    99

    98

    98

    97

    94

    92

    92

    90

    89

    89

    87

    87

    87

    86

    85

    83

    80

    78

    75

    74

    73

    72

    70

    70

    70

    68

    68

    65

    64

    64

    57

    57

    55

    55

    55

    50

    43

    42

    41

    40

    40

    38

    35

    33

    32

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    29

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    27

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    26

    21

    21

    15

    15

    15

    13

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    11

    10

    10

    10

    8

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    4

    3

    2

    2

    1

    1

    Will AI become a strategic geopolitical weapon by 2040?

    Sep 5, 10:13 AMDec 31, 11:51 PM
    80%chance
    553582

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1081

    902

    OptionProbability

    Sesame Street

    Jeopardy

    Simpsons

    Battlebots

    Cyberchase

    Wheel of Fortune

    Homestar Runner

    Peppa Pig

    Bobs Burgers

    Survivor

    Antiques Roadshow

    Rick and Morty

    Spongebob Squarepants

    Shark Tank

    Ancient Aliens

    Paw patrol

    NCIS

    South Park

    Bluey

    Severence

    The Bear

    Ghost Adventures

    Storage Wars

    Deadliest Catch

    Family Feud

    Black Mirror

    Always Sunny in Philadelphia

    Pawn Stars

    Phineas and Ferb

    American Pickers

    Family Guy

    Abbott Elementry

    Teen Titans Go!

    Robot Chicken

    Beavis and Butt Head

    Law & Order (revival)

    The Incredible Dr Pol

    Ghost Hunters

    Impractical Jokers

    American Horror Story

    Law & Order: SVU

    Grey's Anatomy

    White Lotus

    Forged in Fire

    Hazbin Hotel

    Is it Cake

    American Dad

    True Detective

    Futurama

    Curb Your Enthusiasm

    Red vs Blue

    Stranger Things

    Late show with Stephen Colbert

    97

    91

    91

    90

    90

    90

    89

    88

    88

    86

    85

    81

    77

    76

    74

    73

    70

    67

    66

    66

    66

    61

    60

    60

    60

    58

    57

    56

    56

    54

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    48

    46

    40

    38

    38

    29

    28

    21

    17

    6

    0

    OptionProbability

    God's Knight

    Loki

    Shanks

    Man marked by flames

    Marine

    Big Mom

    St. Figarland

    Enel

    Blackbeard

    Other

    98

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Cake Stock (Permanent)

    Nov 13, 8:17 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM
    241495

    OptionProbability

    NO

    YES

    660

    427

    Will AI become a strategic geopolitical weapon by 2040?

    Sep 9, 4:30 PMSep 16, 8:59 PM
    60.85%chance
    7185

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    161

    103

    Will Jose Luis Ricon BAKE A CAKE for @lydia in 2025?

    Mar 7, 12:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    86.69%chance
    3165

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    255

    39

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