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Top stories

Residente to Perform Free Concert at Mexico City's Zócalo on September 6 at 8 p.m., Announced by Clara Brugada

Residente to Perform Free Concert at Mexico City's Zócalo on September 6 at 8 p.m., Announced by Clara Brugada

Authors

10

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Calle 13

Will Maduro die in U.S. custody?

Jan 3, 7:52 PMFeb 28, 7:51 PM

45.74%chance

7510384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

197

Will Lauren Boebert be re-elected to the House in 2026?

Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.58%chance

61426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1244

519

When will the two witnesses (prophets in sackcloth) begin to prophesy in Jerusalem, Israel

Apr 24, 8:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7648

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2028

2029

33

23

17

14

14

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

Nov 15, 4:05 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4281

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

100

72

59

45

Will James Fishback get more than 9% of the vote in the 2026 Florida Gubernatorial GOP Primary?

Feb 10, 2:57 AMAug 25, 11:59 PM

56.06%chance

6168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

341

264

When will Asahi Linux be ready enough for me to take a Zoom call on a 2024 M3 MacBook Pro?

Feb 25, 5:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2157

OptionProbability

2027

2028

Jul-Sep 2026

Oct-Dec 2026

Mar-Jun 2026

2029

2030

2031-2035

2036+

34

22

16

8

4

4

4

4

4

Will Taiwan (ROC) hold legislative elections before 2028?

May 6, 5:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

6131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

If Satoshi is alive in 2025, was (s)he at Bitcoin 2024?

Dec 28, 4:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.07%chance

494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Buffet Indicator on Nov 2026?

Nov 15, 6:12 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

485

OptionProbability

201%-250%

101%-150%

151%-200%

51%-100%

251%+

0%-50%

23

19

19

16

15

8

Will people like the Greenland resolution?

Jan 20, 6:54 PMDec 31, 6:52 PM

61.78%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

79

[Metaculus] Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?

Nov 9, 12:17 AMJan 2, 8:00 AM

41.24%chance

319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

78

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