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Prediction markets for CAS
Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
Apr 21, 4:34 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM
5%chance
5793334
OptionVotes
3147
765
Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?
Dec 18, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.44%chance
3815185
OptionVotes
6424
3116
Will SCOTUS strike down the preemptive pardons if it considers the case?
Jan 20, 2:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
19.97%chance
3914937
OptionVotes
18141
6182
Will there be more than 100 cases of ebola in the US in 2026?
May 19, 11:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.42%chance
399647
OptionVotes
10547
5766
Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026?
Feb 16, 5:57 PMOct 31, 5:57 PM
1%chance
86637
OptionVotes
6202
34
OptionVotes
9618
91
Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?
Feb 1, 5:41 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
3.09%chance
124819
OptionVotes
5494
16
OptionVotes
3988
1334
Will a major battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?
Apr 24, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.35%chance
833042
OptionVotes
1712
1300
In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?
Jan 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
70.46%chance
131749
OptionVotes
1195
1194
OptionVotes
1294
1116
Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030?
Nov 2, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
54.07%chance
14886
OptionVotes
1583
1370