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Prediction markets for CAS
Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
Apr 21, 4:34 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM
5.91%chance
5592910
OptionVotes
2723
789
Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?
Dec 18, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
36%chance
3415050
OptionVotes
6351
3156
Will SCOTUS strike down the preemptive pardons if it considers the case?
Jan 20, 2:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
20%chance
3814920
OptionVotes
18124
6187
Will the CCRC refer Lucy Letby's case to the Court of Appeal?
Sep 9, 7:51 AMSep 1, 10:59 PM
30%chance
1611909
OptionVotes
1529
655
Will LME cobalt metal official cash settlement price exceed 55 USD per kg on June 30, 2026?
Mar 21, 2:23 AMJun 30, 4:00 AM
74.9%chance
149135
OptionVotes
17274
5789
OptionVotes
9618
91
Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?
Feb 1, 5:41 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
3.09%chance
124819
OptionVotes
5494
16
Will a major battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?
Apr 24, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.35%chance
833042
OptionVotes
1712
1300
In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?
Jan 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
70.46%chance
131749
OptionVotes
1195
1194
OptionVotes
1334
1083
Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030?
Nov 2, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
55.75%chance
10231
OptionVotes
1538
1425
Which will be the first Chinese orbital-class reusable rocket stage to land vertically?
Nov 29, 12:31 PMNov 29, 12:26 PM
3169
OptionProbability
44
24
9
9
7
7