CAS News
Top stories
Prediction markets for CAS
Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
Apr 21, 4:34 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM
5.55%chance
5593060
OptionVotes
2873
780
Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?
Dec 18, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.44%chance
3815185
OptionVotes
6424
3116
Will SCOTUS strike down the preemptive pardons if it considers the case?
Jan 20, 2:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
20%chance
3814920
OptionVotes
18124
6187
Will there be more than 100 cases of ebola in the US in 2026?
May 19, 11:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.25%chance
387647
OptionVotes
8547
5845
OptionVotes
9618
91
Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?
Feb 1, 5:41 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
3.09%chance
124819
OptionVotes
5494
16
OptionVotes
3988
1334
Will a major battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?
Apr 24, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.35%chance
833042
OptionVotes
1712
1300
In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?
Jan 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
70.46%chance
131749
OptionVotes
1195
1194
Which will be the first Chinese orbital-class reusable rocket stage to land vertically?
Nov 29, 12:31 PMNov 29, 12:26 PM
61243
OptionProbability
96
3
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
1294
1116
Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030?
Nov 2, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
50.81%chance
13398
OptionVotes
1673
1271