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Prediction markets for CDU
Which of the following parties will be in office on December 31, 2028?
Aug 9, 4:31 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
565147
OptionProbability
97
93
90
83
82
80
75
73
60
60
51
50
50
47
45
44
43
38
38
32
31
30
24
OptionVotes
1826
806
Will Germany tighten its refugee policy before 2030?
Jul 11, 7:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
85.26%chance
524366
OptionVotes
2099
649
[Metaculus] Will the Christian Democratic Union of Germany announce that it is open to negot... for Germany before 2030?
Mar 3, 3:42 AMJan 1, 11:00 PM
29.81%chance
161171
OptionVotes
276
237
Will Jens Spahn step down as leader of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag in 2025?
Jun 25, 1:13 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
21.42%chance
12883
OptionVotes
192
52
Which parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Feb 27, 12:44 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM
19675
OptionProbability
65
59
49
35
32
27
27
23
Will the CDU in eastern german states try to form a government with the far-right AfD after the next election?
Jan 18, 11:03 AMDec 31, 7:25 AM
11.37%chance
8537
OptionVotes
323
100
Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?
May 6, 3:08 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM
56.66%chance
6255
OptionVotes
114
87
Will Hendrik Wüst succeed Friedrich Merz as the leader of the CDU?
Mar 31, 11:49 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
36.28%chance
8204
OptionVotes
122
98
Which parties will gain seats in the next Thuringian state election?
Mar 3, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
11183
OptionProbability
69
59
41
41
34
34
30
The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections?
Aug 17, 10:40 AMMar 30, 10:59 PM
43.11%chance
8173
OptionVotes
115
87
Which coalition will govern Thuringia after the next state election?
Mar 1, 7:22 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
12117
OptionProbability
18
14
11
9
9
8
7
6
6
5
3
3