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Prediction markets for Charter
OptionProbability
90
84
79
77
76
75
72
70
70
70
66
66
66
66
61
60
60
60
60
57
55
55
55
55
54
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
47
47
47
45
45
45
45
43
43
43
43
42
42
42
41
40
40
37
37
37
36
35
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
33
33
33
31
28
28
28
27
26
26
26
25
25
25
22
15
12
12
7
5
Which three cause areas will get the most EA funding before 2030?
Jan 13, 8:26 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
262359
OptionProbability
38
34
31
26
24
21
20
19
18
14
12
10
9
9
9
8
7
6
[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?
Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
27.34%chance
221255
OptionVotes
1157
913
How many war crimes will James Bond commit in the next James Bond movie?
Dec 30, 2:45 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM
151029
OptionProbability
87
80
79
77
66
62
59
55
46
45
45
45
45
43
41
40
40
39
34
31
30
30
30
29
27
25
25
24
24
20
20
20
10
8
OptionVotes
1011
975
Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?
Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.22%chance
21624
OptionVotes
1103
754
Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 29, 3:11 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
26.9%chance
10282
OptionVotes
409
180
Where will human germline gene editing resulting in a live birth first occur legally?
May 12, 2:03 AMJan 2, 2:55 AM
5215
OptionProbability
78
50
50
50
34
30
24
22
20
20
13
Will the OpenAI Charter be scrapped or amended by 2027?
Sep 14, 6:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
75.2%chance
376
OptionVotes
174
57
OptionVotes
1044
958
OptionProbability
76
50
50
50
50
OptionProbability
50
50
37
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