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Charter News

    Prediction markets for Charter

    OptionProbability

    China launches military drills around Taiwan

    Warnings from Western intelligence agencies about Chinese invasion preparations

    Submarine cables around Taiwan are damaged

    China engages in a partial/total naval blockade of Taiwan

    Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Taiwan's military

    A western think-tank warns about a Chinese naval build-up

    Major cyberattack on Taiwanese infrastructure

    At least one western country charters a fight to evacuate its citizens from Taiwan

    China shoots down a Taiwanese aircraft

    At least one western country tells its citizens to leave China

    A Chinese entity releases a frontier AI model

    Taiwan revokes visa of pro-Beijing influencer

    Taiwan shoots down a Chinese aircraft

    China issues new warning to its citizens about travelling to the US

    China declares a no-fly zone over Taiwan

    China switches its industrial overcapacity over to military production

    China fires missiles/rockets/artillery/railguns over Taiwan

    A military ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)

    Reports that China is building new concentration camps

    A popular Chinese movie is released containing a scene with an amphibious assault

    Chinese government tells large numbers of its citizens to return to China

    Chinese soldiers are involved in active combat outside of Chinese territory (excluding UN peacekeeping)

    A US company has a market cap of at least 5 trillion dollars at any point in the 12-month window

    Significant damage to low-earth orbit satellites (compared to per-satellite damage level in 2024) -- including but not limited to hostile action and kessler syndrome

    Reports of drone activity over US military bases in the Pacific

    Major cyberattack on Japanese infrastructure

    A Taiwanese politician dies in suspicious circumstances

    Major cyberattack on South Korean infrastructure

    Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in the US military

    Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Japan's military

    Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in South Korea's military

    the US implements tariffs of at least 25% on Taiwanese semiconductors (implemented at any point in the 12-month window)

    A US semiconductor facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage

    At least three civilian flights to Taiwan are diverted to land in China

    Significant constitutional crisis in the US

    Nasdaq is at 60% of its previous peak at any time in the 12-month period

    Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Australia's military

    Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in India's military

    A civilian ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)

    The US implements significant travel restrictions on Chinese citizens (compared to 2024)

    Reports of a major corruption scandal involving a Taiwanese/US/Japanese/South-Korean semiconductor company

    Oil prices are at >=100 dollars a barrel at any time in the 12-month window

    Reports that a large scale cyberattack has physically damaged AI chips in the West

    Credible reports in Western news media about activity relating to biolabs in North Korea

    1 million humanoid robots have been manufactured

    50k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine

    A popular Western podcaster/youtuber is prevented from leaving a country by China/Russia

    the US implements tariffs of at least 50% on most imports from China

    A US movie with a budget of at least 30 million dollars is released containing a US vs China war scene

    The US bombs Iran

    Attack on a US military asset in the Pacific

    A Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage

    An apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target in Taiwan

    A human walks on the Moon

    At least three prominent Taiwanese AI researchers disappear

    Reports that the US has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations

    Reports that China has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations

    The US reduces sanctions on Russia

    Ukraine loses the Donbass region in a ceasefire/peace deal with Russia

    The US attempts to expand its territory by force

    Reports of suspicious electromagnetic phenomena in the upper atmosphere

    Elon Musk is pardoned

    China arrests / takes hostage at least 100 westerners (non-taiwanese) on spurious grounds

    The US attempts to expand its territory by economic coercion

    Attempted coup in Taiwan

    the US implements tariffs of at least 75% on most imports from China

    Donald Trump is replaced as the US's leader

    The US withdraws from NATO

    Vladimir Putin is replaced as Russia's leader

    100k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine

    A NATO soldier on active duty is killed by Russia

    Russia attacks a NATO member (excluding attacks on submarine cables)

    AGI is achieved by a non-Chinese entity

    North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon

    The US military performs combat operations in Mexico

    Xi Jinping is replaced as China's leader

    India detonates a nuclear weapon

    Russia cedes territory to China

    Vladivostok is not under Russia's control

    Ukraine signs a deal with the US giving it access to its minerals

    Zelensky is replaced as the leader of Ukraine

    Reports in western media about a Taiwanese businessperson falling out of the window of a tall building

    Taiwanese political leader dies in small plane accident (w/out being attacked by kinetic or other physical weapon)

    Chinese soldiers present in Europe in official combat roles (including peacekeeping)

    An AI datacenter is hit by a significant EMP blast

    China executes at least 5 citizens of western countries

    AGI is achieved by a Chinese entity

    A major pandemic occurs

    Attempted coup in Russia

    Attempted coup in the Phillipines

    The US military performs combat operations on Palestinian territory

    The US detonates a nuclear weapon

    The US attacks a NATO member

    Tulsi Gabbard is arrested on treason charges

    A nuclear weapon is detonated

    Attempted coup in China

    Japan takes control of the Kuril Islands

    Successful revolution in Iran

    Russia detonates a nuclear weapon

    Elon Musk is arrested on treason charges

    Attempted coup in the US

    Strong evidence supporting the covid lab-leak theory emerges

    China detonates a nuclear weapon

    Japan detonates a nuclear weapon

    South Korea detonates a nuclear weapon

    Australia detonates a nuclear weapon

    A room temperature superconductor is discovered

    90

    84

    79

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    70

    70

    66

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    60

    57

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    48

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    42

    41

    40

    40

    37

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    34

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    33

    33

    31

    28

    28

    28

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    22

    15

    12

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    7

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    OptionProbability

    Mass-movement political advocacy for AI regulation (like "PauseAI")

    Preventing S-Risks

    Wild-animal welfare

    Mental-health / subjective wellbeing interventions in LMIC

    Farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc)

    Mitigation of AI propaganda / persuasion / "botpocalypse" impacts

    Alcohol, tobacco, & sugar taxation

    Research into digital sentience / the nature of consciousness

    Climate geoengineeering

    Preventing stable totalitarianism

    Space governance / space colonization

    Georgism (aka land value taxes)

    Approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc

    Cryonics & brain-emulation research

    Human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection research

    Charter cities / affinity cities / network states

    Civilizational-preservation bunkers

    Interventions motivated by anthropics, acausal trade, simulation arguments, aliens, parallel universes, etc

    38

    34

    31

    26

    24

    21

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    14

    12

    10

    9

    9

    9

    8

    7

    6

    [Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

    Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
    27.34%chance
    221255

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1157

    913

    OptionProbability

    Wilful killing

    Destroying or seizing the enemy's property unless such destruction or seizure be imperatively demanded by the necessities of war;

    Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health;

    Killing or wounding treacherously individuals belonging to the hostile nation or army;

    Intentionally launching an attack in the knowledge that such attack will cause incidental loss of life or injury to civilians or damage to civilian objects or widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment which would...

    Unlawful deportation or transfer or unlawful confinement;

    Utilizing the presence of a civilian or other protected person to render certain points, areas or military forces immune from military operations;

    Employing weapons, projectiles and material and methods of warfare which are of a nature to cause superfluous injury or unnecessary suffering or which are inherently indiscriminate in violation of the international law of armed conflict...

    Employing bullets which expand or flatten easily in the human body, such as bullets with a hard envelope which does not entirely cover the core or is pierced with incisions;

    Extensive destruction and appropriation of property, not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly;

    Intentionally directing attacks against personnel, installations, material, units or vehicles involved in a humanitarian assistance or peacekeeping mission in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, ...

    Compelling the nationals of the hostile party to take part in the operations of war directed against their own country, even if they were in the belligerent's service before the commencement of the war;

    Committing outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment;

    Employing poison or poisoned weapons;

    Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities;

    Wilfully depriving a prisoner of war or other protected person of the rights of fair and regular trial;

    Taking of hostages.

    Intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects, that is, objects which are not military objectives;

    Killing or wounding a combatant who, having laid down his arms or having no longer means of defence, has surrendered at discretion;

    Pillaging a town or place, even when taken by assault;

    Torture or inhuman treatment, including biological experiments;

    Intentionally directing attacks against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not military...

    Employing asphyxiating, poisonous or other gases, and all analogous liquids, materials or devices;

    Declaring that no quarter will be given;

    Making improper use of a flag of truce, of the flag or of the military insignia and uniform of the enemy or of the United Nations, as well as of the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions, resulting in death or serious personal...

    Compelling a prisoner of war or other protected person to serve in the forces of a hostile Power;

    Declaring abolished, suspended or inadmissible in a court of law the rights and actions of the nationals of the hostile party;

    The transfer, directly or indirectly, by the Occupying Power of parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies, or the deportation or transfer of all or parts of the population of the occupied territory within or ...

    Subjecting persons who are in the power of an adverse party to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are neither justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the person concerned nor ...

    Attacking or bombarding, by whatever means, towns, villages, dwellings or buildings which are undefended and which are not military objectives;

    Intentionally directing attacks against buildings, material, medical units and transport, and personnel using the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions in conformity with international law;

    Intentionally using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare by depriving them of objects indispensable to their survival, including wilfully impeding relief supplies as provided for under the Geneva Conventions;

    Committing rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, as defined in article 7, paragraph 2 (f), enforced sterilization, or any other form of sexual violence also constituting a grave breach of the Geneva Conventions;

    Conscripting or enlisting children under the age of fifteen years into the national armed forces or using them to participate actively in hostilities.

    87

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    66

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    59

    55

    46

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    Will there be commercial flights to the Moon in 2032?

    Apr 9, 1:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    25.85%chance
    22746

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1011

    975

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    409

    180

    OptionProbability

    China

    Singapore

    South Korea

    Israel

    USA

    Other country, not in a semi-autonomous zone

    Taiwan

    Canada

    Japan

    Semi-autonomous charter city or network state (like Prospera)

    United Kingdom

    78

    50

    50

    50

    34

    30

    24

    22

    20

    20

    13

    Will the OpenAI Charter be scrapped or amended by 2027?

    Sep 14, 6:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    75.2%chance
    376

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    174

    57

    C-17 production line reopening announced by 2030?

    Jul 4, 8:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    47.85%chance
    344

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1044

    958

    OptionProbability

    Question 4: Digitize the City Map

    Question 1: Fast Track Affordable Housing

    Question 2: Simplify Review of Modest Projects

    Question 3: Establish an Affordable Housing Appeals Board

    Question 5: Move Local Elections to Presidential Years

    76

    50

    50

    50

    50

    2026 City of Los Angeles Charter Reform Predictions

    Jul 28, 6:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    110

    OptionProbability

    No change to the charter

    Ranked choice voting for city council or city wide office

    Expand the number of council districts

    50

    50

    37

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