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Top stories

Philippine Coast Guard Ships Harassed by Chinese Vessel 5304 as PLA Conducts 33 Sorties Near Taiwan; Chinese Coast Guard Vessels Enter Kinmen Waters

Philippine Coast Guard Ships Harassed by Chinese Vessel 5304 as PLA Conducts 33 Sorties Near Taiwan; Chinese Coast Guard Vessels Enter Kinmen Waters

Authors

6

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Chinese Coast Guard

China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026

Mar 11, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.2%chance

323242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3345

299

China-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 2026

Nov 23, 7:58 AMDec 15, 7:54 AM

7.21%chance

17630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

359

28

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2027?

Oct 24, 7:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

20%chance

13291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

62

Will a Chinese navy or coast guard ship sink a Filipino navy or coast guard ship before 2027?

Aug 12, 10:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.11%chance

11269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

50

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2035?

Oct 24, 7:38 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

88.77%chance

6265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

33

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2029?

Oct 24, 7:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

47.7%chance

8200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

105

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?

Oct 24, 7:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.84%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

55

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2032?

Oct 24, 7:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

83.17%chance

5140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

28

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?

Oct 24, 7:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

78.05%chance

4129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

67

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2030?

Oct 24, 7:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

40.24%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

85

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2027?

Aug 27, 3:27 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

61.19%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

80

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