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Prediction markets for CISA
Will cyberattacks cause a major societal disruption before 2027-07?
Oct 24, 12:52 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
43.67%chance
291406
OptionVotes
114
88
Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?
Apr 10, 9:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
96.26%chance
6447
OptionVotes
507
20
Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028?
Sep 13, 3:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
74.49%chance
8334
OptionVotes
171
59
Rogue SOTA AI autonomously surviving and replicating for at least three months by EOY 2030?
Sep 27, 7:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32%chance
368
OptionVotes
146
69
Conditional on a cyber incident causing $15B+ in US economic damage, what will be the primary target?
Aug 12, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
225
OptionProbability
33
29
21
16
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