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Citi México News

    Prediction markets for Citi México

    Ukraine warcasting megamarket

    Jun 8, 2:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    336200100

    OptionProbability

    Will Zelensky be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

    Will Putin be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

    Will Trump be in power 2026 Jan 1st?

    Will Putin be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

    Will Zelensky be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

    Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2026 (lasts for at least 1 year)

    Will a successful coup happen in Russia before the peace is established?

    >5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2026

    Nuclear weapon launch aimed in such a way that it causes fewer than 10 civilian deaths (eg stratosphere, battlefield, over ocean) before 2030 by Russia

    Will a successful coup happen in Ukraine before the peace is established?

    Russian nuke which causes more than 10 civilian deaths, by 2030

    Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2025 (lasts for at least 1 year)

    Will Russia or Ukraine gain control over a new city of 250k population by EOY 2024

    Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2024 (lasts for at least 1 year)

    >5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2024

    100

    100

    99

    82

    35

    32

    12

    11

    8

    6

    5

    4

    0

    0

    0

    Who will win the 2025-2026 Premier League?

    Mar 5, 6:02 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM
    107152743

    OptionProbability

    Arsenal

    Manchester City

    Liverpool

    Chelsea

    Manchester United

    Other

    Tottenham Hotspur

    Newcastle United

    56

    30

    4

    4

    2

    2

    1

    1

    🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS]

    May 22, 7:43 PMDec 7, 5:36 PM
    23635229

    OptionProbability

    Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

    Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

    Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

    put butter into it

    Toast the bread

    Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

    Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

    Bake it with your best friend.

    Bake for 5 more minutes

    Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

    Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast

    Serve the bread hot

    Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

    Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.

    Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

    Improve the bread

    Bake for 15 more minutes

    Use sourdough instead of yeast

    Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

    Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance

    Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.

    3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

    Autolyse 20 minutes

    Make the bread taste good

    Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.

    Do a second rise

    Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

    Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".

    Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top

    Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞

    Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

    replace 10% of flour with farina bona

    Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

    Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)

    Add slurs to it

    Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it

    Watch the video

    Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

    Make banana bread

    Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

    Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.

    If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.

    Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

    Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

    Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

    Throw the bread at a telescope

    Cut bread into loaves before serving

    Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving

    Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you

    Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.

    Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran

    Add garlic

    Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

    Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

    Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.

    Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)

    Let dough sit 48 hrs

    Increase water by 50 g

    While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

    Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency

    Use a convection oven/setting

    Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug

    Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

    Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

    Brush on an egg wash

    Make the bread great again

    Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

    Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

    Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

    Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

    Make the bread edible then throw it in

    Drink vodka while eating the bread

    Do FOLDED

    Quit Manifold into the bread.

    Kill the bread into Manifold.

    Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

    Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

    Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.

    Add a tablespoon of sugar

    it needs more salt

    Bake one more minute

    Strawberry jelly filling

    Add caffeine to the bread

    Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

    Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

    Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

    Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

    Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.

    Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

    Bake vegimite into it.

    Only use tap water from specifically New York City

    Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread

    Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

    Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

    Wear a suit while baking the cake.

    Use lemonade instead of water.

    Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

    Half yeast

    Replace salt with sugar

    Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

    A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.

    Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available

    Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

    Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

    Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

    Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

    Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

    Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

    Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

    Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)

    Quadruple salt

    Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder

    Bake your social security number into it.

    Bake one fewer minute

    Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

    Bake for 5 fewer minutes

    Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

    Test/filter the water for heavy metals

    Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating

    Eat the bread in front of the White House.

    Implement all options that resolved NO

    Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

    Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

    Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

    Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

    make the bread bounce

    Bake vodka into it

    Implementing every element listed below.

    Just make donuts instead

    Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

    Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

    Use a plastic baking sheet.

    Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

    Double oven temperature

    Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.

    Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.

    Add a pinch of sugar

    Light it on fire with birthday candles.

    Bake it with a microwave

    Halve oven temperature

    Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

    Step on it

    Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

    Bake America Great Again

    Sacrifice a lamb

    Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

    Bake in a cat and a dog

    Explode it:

    5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand

    say 6 7 67 times before making the bread

    Take a fat dump in the dough

    Sit in dough 24 hrs

    Replace flour with flowers

    Let dough sit 24 hrs

    Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

    Add 2g? of baking soda

    Bake in rectangular tin

    Add 50g vital wheat gluten

    double yeast

    halve salt

    Double salt

    Add 2tsp olive oil

    Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

    Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

    Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

    Think positive thoughts before tasting

    Put fork in microwave

    Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

    Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

    Play classical music while baking

    Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

    Eat the bread with friends

    Bake it in the country you were born in.

    Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

    Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

    Eat the bread over the course of a week.

    Use 50% whole grain flour

    Bake the bread with love

    Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

    Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

    More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

    Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

    Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

    Add 50g sugar

    Add 50g honey

    Swap 200ml water for milk

    Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

    Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

    Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

    Add banana

    Add poppy seeds

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    87

    86

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    79

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    69

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    50

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    37

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    3

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    2

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    2

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    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    0

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    0

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    0

    0

    0

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    5123

    1149

    US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

    Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM
    47.66%chance
    52539

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    10480

    9542

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    12039

    8306

    China's 70-city new home price index for January 2026 ≥ -2.0% YoY?

    Nov 26, 6:08 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM
    56.37%chance
    41397

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    11367

    8797

    Will Mexico City have a big 4 sports team before 2030

    Apr 4, 12:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    17.14%chance
    6266

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    348

    76

    Will Mexico City get a Major League Baseball team before 2030?

    Apr 19, 1:51 AMJan 1, 7:01 AM
    21.55%chance
    16258

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1153

    940

    OptionProbability

    2028 or earlier

    2029

    2030

    2031

    Not before 2032

    37

    27

    14

    12

    10

    OptionProbability

    Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Las Vegas Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles

    Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

    Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears

    Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

    New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars

    Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

    Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans

    Washington Commanders at New York Giants

    Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks

    Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

    Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos

    Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers

    Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams

    Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys

    Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers

    6

    6

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