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Civil Protection News

    Prediction markets for Civil Protection

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    218

    116

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2854

    350

    Will the regime of Iran fall by the end of March 2026?

    Mar 3, 2:11 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM
    2.05%chance
    383057

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    691

    14

    OptionProbability

    23rd (Grants the District of Columbia electors in the Electoral College.)

    22nd (Limits the number of times a person can be elected president.)

    11th (Makes states immune from suits from out-of-state citizens and foreigners not living within the state borders; lays the foundation for state sovereign immunity.)

    26th (Prohibits the denial of the right of US citizens 18 years of age or older, to vote on account of age.)

    20th (Changes dates on which terms of president and VP, and of members of Congress, begin and end, to January 20 and January 3 respectively. States that if president-elect dies before taking office, VP–elect is to be inaugurated president)

    25th (Addresses succession to the presidency and establishes procedures both for filling a vacancy in the office of the vice president and responding to presidential disabilities.)

    27th (Delays laws affecting Congressional salary from taking effect until after the next election of representatives.)

    6th (Protects the right to a speedy public trial by jury, to notification of criminal accusations, to confront the accuser, to obtain witnesses and to retain counsel.)

    12th (Revises presidential election procedures by having the president and vice president elected together as opposed to the vice president being the runner up in the presidential election.)

    3rd (Restricts the quartering of soldiers in private homes.)

    5th (Sets out rules for indictment by grand jury and eminent domain, protects the right to due process, and prohibits self-incrimination and double jeopardy.)

    15th (Prohibits the denial of the right to vote based on race, color or previous condition of servitude.)

    24th (Prohibits the revocation of voting rights due to the non-payment of a poll tax or any other tax.)

    1st (Protects freedom of religion, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly and the right to petition the government.)

    4th (Prohibits unreasonable searches and seizures and sets out requirements for search warrants based on probable cause.)

    7th (Provides for the right to a jury trial in civil lawsuits.)

    8th (Prohibits excessive fines and excessive bail, as well as cruel and unusual punishment.)

    9th (States that rights not enumerated in the Constitution are retained by the people.)

    10th (States that the federal government possesses only those powers delegated, or enumerated, to it through the Constitution, and that all other powers are reserved to the States, or to the people.)

    13th (Abolishes slavery and involuntary servitude, except as punishment for a crime.)

    17th (Establishes the direct election of United States senators by popular vote.)

    21st (Repeals the 18th Amendment and makes it a federal offense to transport or import intoxicating liquors into U.S. states and territories where such is prohibited by law.)

    2nd (Protects the right to keep and bear arms.)

    14th (Defines citizenship, contains the Privileges or Immunities Clause, the Due Process Clause, and the Equal Protection Clause, and deals with post–Civil War issues.)

    16th (Permits Congress to levy an income tax without apportioning it among the various states or basing it on the United States Census.)

    19th (Prohibits the denial of the right to vote based on sex.)

    26

    21

    19

    19

    18

    18

    18

    17

    17

    15

    14

    13

    12

    6

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    2

    1

    1

    Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

    Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    41.79%chance
    271368

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1207

    867

    Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?

    May 27, 2:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    25.79%chance
    161362

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1696

    589

    Will the Supreme Court rule against disparate impact by Dec 31 2026?

    May 1, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    30.01%chance
    91127

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1188

    571

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    200

    56

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    170

    59

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