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OptionProbability
2025-02-01: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs MONTEREY BAY (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-23: REAL SALT LAKE vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-03-02: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-06: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-06: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-29: LOS ANGELES GALAXY vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-08: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC (US Open Cup)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-21: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (US Open Cup)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-24: HOUSTON DYNAMO vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-09-28: SAN DIEGO vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
2025-09-13: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs LOS ANGELES FC (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-06: VANCOUVER WHITECAPS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-01-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs LOS ANGELES FC (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-05: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-08: NEW YORK RED BULLS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-12: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs CHICAGO FIRE (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs ST. LOUIS CITY (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-03-09: MINNESOTA UNITED FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-03-16: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-03-22: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs CHARLOTTE (Major League Soccer)
2025-03-30: SEATTLE SOUNDERS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-17: NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-31: ST. LOUIS CITY vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-31: ST. LOUIS CITY vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-14: PORTLAND TIMBERS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-29: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs LOS ANGELES GALAXY (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-06: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs NEW YORK RED BULLS (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-13: MINNESOTA UNITED FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-17: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs FC DALLAS (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-17: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs FC DALLAS (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-17: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs FC DALLAS (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-20: SEATTLE SOUNDERS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-27: REAL SALT LAKE vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-17: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SAN DIEGO (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-09: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
2025-07-09: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
2025-07-09: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
2025-07-09: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
2025-08-31: AUSTIN vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-09-21: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs ST. LOUIS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-05: VANCOUVER WHITECAPS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-09-14: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs LOS ANGELES FC (Major League Soccer)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
The Manifold Logo
“Anti gambling gambling club” - by andri
Trustworthy-ish - by Pat Scott
Crane Hexes - by Pat Scott
“Put your Mana where your mouth is” - by MIMIR MAGNVS
“This meeting could have been a market” - by andri
“my waifu / predicts the future" - Pat Scott
“Calibrated measures” - by andri
“ I just lost mana because of that” - by andri
“It’s not 🤮crypto🤮 it’s play money” - by andri
98
77
76
67
66
62
46
44
43
15
OptionProbability
2025-02-26: REAL SOCIEDAD vs REAL MADRID (Copa del Rey)
2025-03-04: REAL MADRID vs ATLETICO MADRID (UEFA Champions League)
2025-03-09: REAL MADRID vs RAYO VALLECANO (La Liga)
2025-03-15: VILLARREAL vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-03-29: REAL MADRID vs LEGANES (La Liga)
2025-04-13: ALAVES vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-04-20: REAL MADRID vs ATHLETIC CLUB (La Liga)
2025-06-22: REAL MADRID vs PACHUCA (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-27: RED BULL SALZBURG vs REAL MADRID (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-22: REAL MADRID vs PACHUCA (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-27: RED BULL SALZBURG vs REAL MADRID (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-03-29: REAL MADRID vs LEGANES (La Liga)
2025-03-29: REAL MADRID vs LEGANES (La Liga)
2025-03-29: REAL MADRID vs LEGANES (La Liga)
2025-04-23: GETAFE vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-04-23: GETAFE vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-05-03: REAL MADRID vs CELTA VIGO (La Liga)
2025-05-04: REAL MADRID vs CELTA VIGO (La Liga)
2025-05-04: REAL MADRID vs CELTA VIGO (La Liga)
2025-05-14: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-05-14: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-05-17: SEVILLA vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-05-18: SEVILLA vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-05-18: SEVILLA vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-05-24: REAL MADRID vs REAL SOCIEDAD (La Liga)
2025-05-24: REAL MADRID vs REAL SOCIEDAD (La Liga)
2025-05-24: REAL MADRID vs REAL SOCIEDAD (La Liga)
2025-07-01: REAL MADRID vs JUVENTUS (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-07-01: REAL MADRID vs JUVENTUS (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-07-01: REAL MADRID vs JUVENTUS (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-07-01: REAL MADRID vs JUVENTUS (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-07-05: REAL MADRID vs BORUSSIA DORTMUND (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-08-17: REAL MADRID vs OSASUNA (La Liga)
2025-08-24: OVIEDO vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-08-31: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-09-14: REAL SOCIEDAD vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-09-21: REAL MADRID vs ESPANYOL (La Liga)
2025-09-24: LEVANTE vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-10-05: REAL MADRID vs VILLARREAL (La Liga)
2025-10-19: GETAFE vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-07-05: REAL MADRID vs BORUSSIA DORTMUND (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-08-17: REAL MADRID vs OSASUNA (La Liga)
2025-08-24: OVIEDO vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-08-31: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-09-14: REAL SOCIEDAD vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-09-21: REAL MADRID vs ESPANYOL (La Liga)
2025-09-24: LEVANTE vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-10-05: REAL MADRID vs VILLARREAL (La Liga)
2025-10-19: GETAFE vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-07-05: REAL MADRID vs BORUSSIA DORTMUND (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-08-17: REAL MADRID vs OSASUNA (La Liga)
2025-08-24: OVIEDO vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-08-31: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-09-14: REAL SOCIEDAD vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-09-21: REAL MADRID vs ESPANYOL (La Liga)
2025-09-24: LEVANTE vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-10-05: REAL MADRID vs VILLARREAL (La Liga)
2025-10-19: GETAFE vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-10-26: REAL MADRID vs BARCELONA (La Liga)
2025-08-19: REAL MADRID vs OSASUNA (La Liga)
2025-08-30: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-08-19: REAL MADRID vs OSASUNA (La Liga)
2025-08-30: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-08-19: REAL MADRID vs OSASUNA (La Liga)
2025-08-30: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-08-19: REAL MADRID vs OSASUNA (La Liga)
2025-08-30: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-08-19: REAL MADRID vs OSASUNA (La Liga)
2025-08-30: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-08-12: WSG WATTENS vs REAL MADRID (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-09-13: REAL SOCIEDAD vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-09-16: REAL MADRID vs MARSEILLE (UEFA Champions League)
2025-09-30: KAIRAT ALMATY vs REAL MADRID (UEFA Champions League)
2025-10-22: REAL MADRID vs JUVENTUS (UEFA Champions League)
2025-09-20: REAL MADRID vs ESPANYOL (La Liga)
2025-09-23: LEVANTE vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-10-04: REAL MADRID vs VILLARREAL (La Liga)
2025-11-02: REAL MADRID vs VALENCIA (La Liga)
2025-11-26: OLYMPIAKOS PIRAEUS vs REAL MADRID (UEFA Champions League)
2025-11-01: REAL MADRID vs VALENCIA (La Liga)
2025-11-23: ELCHE vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-12-14: ALAVES vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-12-07: REAL MADRID vs CELTA VIGO (La Liga)
2025-12-21: REAL MADRID vs SEVILLA (La Liga)
2025-12-10: REAL MADRID vs MANCHESTER CITY (UEFA Champions League)
2025-11-30: GIRONA vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-04-06: REAL MADRID vs VALENCIA (La Liga)
2025-11-09: RAYO VALLECANO vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-11-04: LIVERPOOL vs REAL MADRID (UEFA Champions League)
2025-03-01: REAL BETIS vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-03-12: ATLETICO MADRID vs REAL MADRID (UEFA Champions League)
2025-04-01: REAL MADRID vs REAL SOCIEDAD (Copa del Rey)
2025-06-18: REAL MADRID vs AL-HILAL SAUDI FC (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-18: REAL MADRID vs AL-HILAL SAUDI FC (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-04-08: ARSENAL vs REAL MADRID (UEFA Champions League)
2025-04-16: REAL MADRID vs ARSENAL (UEFA Champions League)
2025-04-05: REAL MADRID vs VALENCIA (La Liga)
2025-04-25: BARCELONA vs REAL MADRID (Copa del Rey)
2025-04-26: BARCELONA vs REAL MADRID (Copa del Rey)
2025-04-26: BARCELONA vs REAL MADRID (Copa del Rey)
2025-05-11: BARCELONA vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-05-11: BARCELONA vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-05-11: BARCELONA vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-09-28: ATLETICO MADRID vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-09-28: ATLETICO MADRID vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-09-28: ATLETICO MADRID vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-07-09: PARIS SAINT GERMAIN vs REAL MADRID (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-09-27: ATLETICO MADRID vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
100
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100
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100
100
100
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100
100
100
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100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
99
80
76
66
66
50
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Donald Trump talks about the case
Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case
Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public
Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial
Mangione extradited to NY in 2024
Luigi Mangione pleads "not guilty" when first arraigned on the New York indictment against him
A public figure calls for the death penalty
Prosecutors seek the death penalty
Luigi gets a marriage proposal
Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction
Defense requests change in venue
Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence
Polling from established firm shows more people have a positive than negative view of Mangione
Major media outlet releases exclusive interview with Mangione family
Any sanctions for prosecutor
Defense seeks competence evaluation
“JNOV” (or its expansion) appears in court transcripts or mainstream news coverage of the trial
We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment
Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)
Mangione reported to be in a new relationship
Another CEO of a publicly traded company is murdered
Mangione is ever found incompetent to stand trial
Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder
Mangione attempts suicide
Suspect makes a confession
Mangione assaulted while in custody
Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea
Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan
Mangione represents himself in all hearings
Mangione takes a plea deal before trial (Duplicate)
The grand jury does not return an indictment the first time the cases presented to them
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
94
58
54
43
42
37
37
31
23
22
21
17
15
15
13
11
6
6
3
2
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Bayern Munich (Germany)
Arsenal (England)
Real Madrid (Spain)
Paris Saint-Germain (France)
Barcelona (Spain)
Manchester City (England)
Liverpool (England)
Chelsea (England)
Inter Milan (Italy)
Newcastle United (England)
Borussia Dortmund (Germany)
Juventus (Italy)
Atlético Madrid (Spain)
Monaco (France)
Tottenham Hotspur (England)
Napoli (Italy)
Athletic Club (Spain)
Ajax (Netherlands)
Bayer Leverkusen (Germany)
Atalanta (Italy)
Bodø/Glimt (Norway)
Benfica (Portugal)
Club Brugge (Belgium)
Kairat Almaty (Kazakhstan)
Copenhagen (Denmark)
Eintracht Frankfurt (Germany)
Galatasaray (Turkey)
Marseille (France)
Olympiacos (Greece)
Pafos (Cyprus)
PSV Eindhoven (Netherlands)
Qarabağ (Azerbaijan)
Slavia Praha (Czechia)
Sporting CP (Portugal)
Union Saint-Gilloise (Belgium)
Villarreal (Spain)
13
13
13
12
9
7
6
6
5
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Racing Club
Estudiantes de La Plata
Gimnasia
Boca Juniors
Unión
River Plate
Central Córdoba
Riestra
Barracas Central
Lanus
Argentinos Juniors
Other
36
21
14
9
4
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Barcelona Beat Frankfurt (Dec 9th)
Juventus Beat Pafos (Dec 10th)
Bayern Munich Beat Sporting CP (Dec 9th)
Borussia Dortmund Beat Bodo/Glimt (Dec 10th)
Tottenham Beat Slavia Prague (Dec 9th)
Villarreal Beat Copenhagen (Dec 10th)
Monaco Beat Galatasaray (Dec 9th)
Inter Beat Liverpool (Dec 9th)
Real Madrid Beat Manchester City (Dec 10th)
Qarabag Beat Ajax (Dec 10th)
Benfica Beat Napoli (Dec 10th)
Leverkusen Beat Newcastle United (Dec 10th)
Union Saint-Gilloise Beat Marseille (Dec 9th)
PSV Eindhoven Beat Atletico Madrid (Dec 9th)
Atalanta Beat Chelsea (Dec 9th)
Kairat Beat Olympiacos (Dec 9th)
Athletic Club Beat Paris Saint-Germain (Dec 10th)
Club Brugge Beat Arsenal (Dec 10th)
81
81
77
73
69
61
43
43
42
40
40
32
31
28
27
14
14
11
OptionProbability
Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case
Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public
Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial
A public figure calls for the death penalty
Prosecution seeks additional charges other than murder
Defense files motion to suppress evidence
Defense requests change in venue
Prosecution offers plea deal that becomes public
Defense claims insufficient evidence for probable cause
Bail hearing results in release with monitoring
Prosecution seeks to introduce evidence of prior bad acts
Expert witnesses publicly dispute evidence validity
Competency evaluation is sought by the defense
Court grants competency evaluation
Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence
Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea
Mangione reported to be in a new relationship
Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction
Suspect makes a confession there is made public in court documents
We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment
Gag order imposed on case participants
Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan
Mangione assaulted while in custody
Prosecution alleges additional victims or attempted crimes
Mangione is found incompetent to stand trial at some point
Mangione attempts suicide
Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)
Mangione's legal team files for dismissal of charges with prejudice
Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder
Defense claims violation of Miranda rights
100
100
100
100
100
69
63
52
48
48
48
48
48
43
41
41
41
37
37
37
37
31
20
20
20
18
17
17
10
8
OptionProbability
Submit a play to my theatre club's short play festival 🎭
Use up all of my tea ☕
Learn to whistle with two fingers 👆
Try 15 new recipes 👨🏻🍳
Win a rap battle 🎤
Write 10 sonnets ✍🏻
Donate my hair ✂️
Speak with an MP about prediction markets 📈
Reach wave 4500 on tier 18 of "The Tower" 🗼
Eat good vegan cheese 🧀
Donate plasma 20 times 🩸
Fix my dandruff ❄️
91
69
46
41
38
37
37
36
34
28
22
17
OptionProbability
Everglades
Strip club
Yacht / sailing
Military base
Theme park rides
Concert / club / rave
Space launch pad
A tiger / big cat private zoo or animal sanctuary
MMA fight arena
90
88
85
81
72
72
71
62
57
OptionVotes
YES
NO
255
39
OptionProbability
0-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41+
20
20
20
20
20
