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Prediction markets for Coalition

Will the Current Spanish Coalition of PSOE+SUMAR Govern Spain Until 2027, Completing a Full 4-Year Term?

Dec 26, 8:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

21.49%chance

275580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

878

China and USA form an AI coalition by EOY 2028

Jan 30, 6:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

12.43%chance

95271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2654

377

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.74%chance

192320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2405

416

Which coalition will govern Germany after the next federal election?

Feb 24, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

242158

OptionProbability

CDU/CSU + SPD

SPD + Greens + Left

No coalition before 2030

CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens

CDU/CSU + Greens

CDU/CSU + AfD

CDU/CSU + Greens + FDP

CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP

Other

CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP

SPD + Greens

SPD + Greens + FDP

CDU/CSU + FDP

CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens + FDP

AfD alone

32

10

9

8

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

1

1

1

WIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?

Mar 1, 2:05 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

18.51%chance

261820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

104

Which political parties will be part of the next dutch governing coalition?

Jul 6, 2:50 PMAug 1, 2:40 PM

61804

OptionProbability

Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA)

People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD)

GroenLinks–PvdA

JA21

Democrats 66 (D66)

Christian Union (CU)

Reformed Political Party (SGP)

Volt Netherlands

Party for the Animals (PvdD)

New Social Contract (NSC)

Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB)

Socialist Party (SP)

Party for Freedom (PVV)

Denk

Forum for Democracy (FvD)

81

80

69

46

40

40

40

40

25

18

18

17

12

12

4

Which Estonian political parties will be in the coalition after the 2027 parliamentary election?

Aug 16, 2:45 PMMar 7, 9:59 PM

41697

OptionProbability

Estonian Reform Party (RE)

Fatherland (I)

Social Democratic Party (SDE)

Estonian Centre Party (KE)

Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE)

Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK)

The Right (PP)

Estonia 200 (E200)

Estonian Greens (EER)

36

27

25

25

13

12

12

12

4

Will a coalition of forces from Arab countries attack Israel before the end of Israel's current campaign in Gaza?

Nov 4, 10:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.1%chance

271437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1652

917

Will a Yesh Atid coalition lead Israel after next election

Nov 7, 3:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75%chance

14844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

244

68

Will New Zealand's National-led Coalition Government Be Limited to a Single Term?

Feb 25, 3:54 AMNov 30, 10:59 AM

54.07%chance

6227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

199

Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?

May 6, 3:08 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

63.71%chance

6129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

Will "The Minority Coalition" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jan 19, 1:38 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.07%chance

170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

92

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