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Prediction markets for ComEd
OptionVotes
19277
4486
Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?
Jul 4, 7:02 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
1.28%chance
6396543
OptionVotes
90079
6480
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
67%chance
8456997
OptionVotes
143166
70518
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
55%chance
21950798
OptionVotes
2545
1107
OptionProbability
40
22
21
10
7
Which will come first, a female POTUS (Yes) or GTA 6 (No)?
Oct 18, 7:49 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM
1.82%chance
259348
OptionVotes
4315
26
Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?
Jun 12, 12:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7.63%chance
337757
OptionVotes
3480
287
OptionVotes
2844
352
Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)
Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
86183
OptionProbability
29
25
20
16
10
Will Taylor Swift publicly come out as gay, bisexual, or queer before the end of 2030?
Jan 31, 2:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13.41%chance
756035
OptionVotes
2176
1183
OptionProbability
28
22
14
8
6
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
OptionVotes
1458
510