Commerce Department News

Markets Put 87% Odds on Fed September Rate Cut

1 year ago

US Economy Expands 3.3% in Second Quarter on Trade, Investment

Economics

Business

US Economy Expands 3.3% in Second Quarter on Trade, Investment

1 year ago

China

Tariffs

Policy

US Revokes Intel and Samsung China Waivers, Extends Some Tariff Exemptions

1 year ago

Economics

Stocks

Business

Intel Gets $5.7 Billion as U.S. Takes 10% Stake

1 year ago

Economics

Business

US Goods Trade Deficit Jumps to $104 Billion on July Import Surge

1 year ago

China

Australia

Economics

US Orders Outpace Forecast Even as Consumer Confidence Slips

1 year ago

US Domestic Policy

Policy

Arizona

US Commerce Voids $7.4 Billion Biden-Era Semiconductor Grant Deal With Natcast Under CHIPS Act, Impacting ASU Lab and Chip Supply Chain

1 year ago

US Domestic Policy

Economics

Energy

IRS Issues Sections 45Y and 48E Guidance for Wind and Solar Tax Credits Amid Commerce’s Section 232 Probe on Offshore Wind Costs

1 year ago

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.7%chance

3134762

OptionVotes

YES

25099

3984

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.63%chance

3315534

OptionVotes

YES

15062

6649

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

94872

OptionProbability

Gallium

Neodymium

Germanium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026?

Aug 7, 9:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.05%chance

71694

OptionVotes

YES

2582

387

Will the US impose antidumping duties on Russian palladium imports by the end of 2026?

Feb 16, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

4562

OptionVotes

YES

485

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.56%chance

13517

OptionVotes

YES

1317

759

Will the US enact export controls on energy products in 2026?

Mar 13, 1:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.89%chance

12241

OptionVotes

YES

113

Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?

Jul 17, 11:52 AMJun 29, 11:59 PM

50%chance

588

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027?

Aug 18, 3:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.1%chance

575

OptionVotes

YES

130

Will UCAR/NCAR win its lawsuit against the Trump administration/US government?

Mar 17, 5:05 AMDec 31, 6:04 AM

69.23%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

150

Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?

Jun 21, 10:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

635

OptionVotes

YES

122

Latest stories

Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
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1 year ago
Aug 29, 2025
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US Economy Expands 3.3% in Second Quarter on Trade, Investment
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Aug 28, 2025
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Business
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Aug 26, 2025
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US Orders Outpace Forecast Even as Consumer Confidence Slips
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1 year ago
Aug 25, 2025
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Economics
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US Retail Sales Rise 0.5% in July on Auto, Online Demand
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21
1 year ago

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Commerce Department News

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Prediction markets for Commerce Department

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Prediction markets for Commerce Department

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026?

Will the US impose antidumping duties on Russian palladium imports by the end of 2026?

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Will the US enact export controls on energy products in 2026?

Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?

Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027?

Will UCAR/NCAR win its lawsuit against the Trump administration/US government?

Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?

Latest stories

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