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Prediction markets for Communications

Will we be able to communicate with dogs in English, by 2025?

May 4, 3:15 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

2.25%chance

5910953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7384

1142

Will communications transmission tech based on quantum entanglement exist and be in use before 2030?

Jun 26, 9:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.66%chance

416244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2059

849

Will we be able to communicate with dogs in English, by 2030?

May 4, 3:13 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

18.08%chance

834265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2251

1101

Will there be a breakthrough communicating with animals and AI in 2025

Jan 15, 3:29 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM

10.78%chance

253711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2876

348

Will "MIRI 2024 Communications Strategy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

May 29, 9:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

25.74%chance

111841

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1112

522

Will AI (or humans) decode and translate whale communication patterns to where humans can understand complex inter-whale discussions by the end of 2034?

Jan 18, 5:00 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

81.56%chance

261632

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1517

827

Will we be able to decode dolphin communication by 2030?

Jan 21, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.63%chance

251144

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

764

Will monkey and human communicate via Neuralink before 2030?

Jul 28, 8:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.97%chance

15837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1316

879

Complex communication with a non-human animal by 2050

Jun 15, 10:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

9595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Animal Communication be Translated by 2030?

Dec 19, 10:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37.98%chance

16517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

982

953

Trump is suing the gov’t for the Mar-a-Lago raid. Will the FBI fail or refuse to provide subpoenaed communications?

Aug 13, 12:35 AMAug 13, 3:59 AM

55.24%chance

4400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1111

900

Will "Authors Have a Responsibility to Communicate ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 3, 10:02 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

3118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

985

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