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Prediction markets for Completion and Production
Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?
Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM
15.68%chance
7147255
OptionVotes
22945
4656
Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.01%chance
175392
OptionVotes
9916
2845
2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.
Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
71.93%chance
163414
OptionVotes
1009
979
4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.
Dec 27, 8:15 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM
54.88%chance
242972
OptionVotes
1103
907
2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
82.06%chance
372697
OptionVotes
1928
630
OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?
Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM
46.41%chance
212381
OptionVotes
1707
1276
Will any country ban tobacco for the next generation by 2026?
Aug 23, 8:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
62.08%chance
382341
OptionVotes
1112
920
Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?
Sep 25, 2:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
23.74%chance
241179
OptionVotes
1280
886
Will any country ban tobacco for the next generation by 2030?
Aug 22, 11:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
88.52%chance
21948
OptionVotes
1072
968
Will any state or company implement mass production of living humans by 2200?
Mar 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM
26.98%chance
18561
OptionVotes
1009
983
Will Bethesda publicly release Fallout V before 2031?
Feb 19, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
69.01%chance
16551
OptionVotes
1075
737
Will Squid Game season 3 have higher average IMDB episode rating than season 2?
Mar 1, 1:59 AMOct 1, 6:59 AM
46.36%chance
655
OptionVotes
108
93
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