OptionProbability
Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)
Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)
A major war in Asia occurs
Second Muslim ban
Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot
Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position
Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out
Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month
Polymarket becomes legal in the United States
Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people
Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA
$TSLA reaches $400 a share
price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe
Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch
RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position
Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)
Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states
Federal employees are ordered to go to work
Government shutdown
Trump visits Africa
A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken
Trump declassifies JFK files
Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)
The US leaves the World Health Organization
John Bolton indicted
A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported
Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)
Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture
At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES
NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)
NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker
Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives
New James Bond actor is presented
"The New Norm" ends
trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)
Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more
Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE
Republican lose a House seat in a special election
Fair elections in 2028
United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
Department of Defense renamed to Department of War
Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants
US national bitcoin reserve created
At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES
Approval < 35%
Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees
The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)
Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)
memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park
A new supreme court justice appointed
Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi
The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil
doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)
Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference
Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research
The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems
any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state
John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader
USA experiences a recession.
Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory
2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart
A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal
3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest
Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election
The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point
A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies
Trump gives himself a nickname in third person
Vances have another kid
trump gets hospitalized
US Invasion of any North/South American country
A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act
plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East
Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country
Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice
Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice
N/A this please, pressed by mistake
DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices
p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)
Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader
Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands
Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them
Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)
A measurable decrease in chronic disease
McDonald's reopens in Russia
there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)
Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve
Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days
FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Russo-Ukrainian War ends
Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs
At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES
New
Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire
Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US
Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections
At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment
Trump and Obama shake hands
Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries
Dow rises above 65,000
Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US
Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government
Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary
plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)
his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028
IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics
Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory
Congress overrides a presidential veto
Trump says a racial slur
Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him
The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25
Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico
Trump says anything that is pro animal rights
transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked
There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits
2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025
Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar
Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide
The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty
Tesla
AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)
A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations
The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump
Joe Biden dies
inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters
10% fewer government agencies
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")
BTC falls below $38,000
Trump gets covid (again)
Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
New national park created
A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling
The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)
Trump announces he is tired of winning
Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress
Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days
A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress
Constitutional Amendment
Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day
Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC
NATO invokes Article 5
Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long
American Manned Lunar Landing
A member of the Trump family runs for Congress
China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty
Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding
Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)
Iran acquires a nuclear weapon
China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan
A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model
The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels
Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)
Trump gets shot
Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled
<1.5 million civilian federal employees
Anthony Fauci is indicted
JD Vance elected President
H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
Another pandemic
Steve Bannon goes to prison again
MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday
The department of education gets desolved
Starship lands on Mars
Record level unemployment
Recess appointment to SCOTUS
Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits
War is declared against another nation
Trump dies
Laura Loomer gets any government role
One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government
Approval < 25%
Trump loses the fake tan
Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)
military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit
Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over
Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats
RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan
RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point
south park is canceled/discontinued
Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt
Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)
Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year
Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress
Trump is seen shirtless
Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Trump runs for a third term
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people
Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000
Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE
Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Trump extends his term past 4 years
54 or more Republican senate seats
Trump is assassinated
Cannabis is federally legalized
Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once
55 or more Republican senate seats
John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States
A national ban on gender-affirming care
"covfefe" posted again
Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r
A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically
Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle
SpaceX is nationalized
Trump threatens Israel with military action
Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program
Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets
2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart
Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute
The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known
TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD
Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.
another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)
Repeal obamacare
Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital
30 year treasury rate >15.00%
Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way
Anthony Fauci goes to prison
Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1
An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.
Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's
Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten
Constitutional Amendment
Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)
Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears
Trump and Melania divorce
Major Yellowstone caldera scare
Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement
The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem
Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking
Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US
Trump bans abortion nationwide
wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate
Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border
Trump enacts jus primae noctis
Anthony Fauci is convicted
New US national anthem
Ann Selzer arrested
Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
A hurricane will be nuked
Jimmy Carter dies
Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026
Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
96
94
92
91
91
90
90
90
90
89
88
88
86
86
85
84
83
83
83
82
81
78
78
78
78
77
77
76
75
72
72
71
71
71
71
70
70
69
69
69
68
67
67
65
65
64
62
60
59
58
56
56
56
55
55
54
54
53
52
52
52
51
51
50
50
50
50
48
47
46
45
44
43
43
43
42
41
41
40
39
39
38
38
37
37
36
35
35
34
34
34
34
33
33
33
32
32
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
28
27
27
27
26
25
25
25
25
25
24
23
23
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
17
16
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
05/08 6:30 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Toronto) Tempo?
05/08 9:00 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valkyries WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?
05/09 12:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?
05/09 2:30 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?
05/09 8:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Portland) Fire?
05/09 7:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?
05/10 12:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?
05/10 2:00 PM: Will the (New York) Libery WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?
05/10 5:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?
05/12 7:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Dallas) Wingz?
05/13 7:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?
05/14 7:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Dallas) Wingz?
05/14 9:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Portland) Fire?
05/15 6:30 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Connecticut) Suns?
05/15 6:30 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?
05/17 12:30 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?
05/19 9:00 PM: Will the (Toronto) Tempo WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?
05/23 12:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against (Chicago) Sky?
05/23 5:00 PM: Will the (Portland) Fire WIN against (Toronto) Tempo?
(Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against (Las Vegas) Aces?
05/27 6:00 PM: Will the (Toronto) Tempo WIN against (Chicago) Sky?
05/27 9:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against (Seattle) Storm?
05/29 6:30 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against (Washington) Mystics?
05/29 6:30 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against (Chicago) Sky?
05/31 2:30 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against (Golden State) Valkyries?
06/01 9:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against (Phoenix) Mercury?
06/08 6:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against (Connecticut) Suns?
06/08 6:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against (Washington) Mystics?
06/09 6:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against (Chicago) Sky?
06/10 9:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against (Seattle) Storm?
06/11 7:30 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against (Atlanta) Dream?
06/12 7:30 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valkyries WIN against (Seattle) Storm?
06/13 6:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against (Connecticut) Sun?
06/13 10:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against (Phoenix) Mercury?
06/14 3:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against (Toronto) Tempo?
06/16 7:00 PM: Will the (Toronto) Tempo WIN against (Indiana) Fever?
06/17 7:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against (Connecticut) Sun?
06/17 8:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against (Chicago) Sky?
06/17 10:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against (Los Angeles) Sparks?
06/17 10:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against (Phoenix) Mercury?
06/18 7:30 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against (Indiana) Fever?
06/19 7:30 PM: Will the (Toronto) Tempo WIN against (Connecticut) Sun?
06/19 7:30 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against (New York) Liberty?
06/19 10:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against (Golden State) Valkyries?
06/21 6:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against (Minnesota) Lynx?
06/22 10:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wingz WIN against (Seattle) Storm?
06/23 10:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against (Las Vegas) Aces?
06/21 4:00 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valkyries WIN against (Las Vegas) Aces?
06/21 8:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against (Los Angeles) Sparkss?
06/22 7:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against (Chicago) Sun?
06/22 7:30 PM: Will the (Toronto) Tempo WIN against (Atlanta) Dream?
06/22 8:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against (Indiana) Fever?
05/08 6:30 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (New York) Liberty?
05/10 5:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Golden State) Valkyries?
05/13 6:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Toronto) Tempo?
05/15 9:00 PM: Will the (Toronto) Tempo WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?
05/15 9:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?
05/18 9:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Portland) Fire?
05/22 6:30 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wingz WIN against Atlanta Dream?
05/22 6:30 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valkyries WIN against (Indiana) Fever?
05/22 9:00 PM: Will (Connecticut) Sun WIN against (Seattle) Storm?
05/27 6:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against (New York) Liberty?
05/27 8:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against (Minnesota) Lynx?
05/27 9:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against (Portland) Fire?
05/28 7:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against (Dallas) Wingz?
05/28 9:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against (Golden State) Valkeries?
05/29 6:30 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against (New York) Liberty?
05/30 12:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against (Toronto) Tempo?
06/01 7:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against (Dallas) Wingz?
06/06 12:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against (Minnesota) Lynx?
06/06 2:00 PM: Will the (Golden State) Valkyries WIN against (Las Vegas) Aces?
06/06 5:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against (Atlanta) Dream?
06/06 7:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against (New York) Liberty?
06/07 2:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against (Toronto) Tempo?
06/07 6:00 PM: Will the (Portland) Fire WIN against (Los Angeles) Sparks?
06/08 9:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against (Las Vegas) Aces?
06/09 7:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wingz WIN against (Minnesota) Lynx?
06/09 9:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against (Golden State) Valkyries?
06/10 6:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Suns WIN against (Toronto) Tempo?
06/11 7:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against (Indiana) Fever?
06/12 7:30 PM: Will the (Toronto) Tempo WIN against (Washington) Mystics?
06/13 8:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against (Las Vegas) Aces?
06/13 8:30 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wingz WIN against (Portland) Fire?
06/14 3:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against (New York) Liberty?
06/15 8:00 PM: Will the (Vegas) Aces WIN against (Dallas) Wingz?
06/15 8:00 PM: Will the (Portland) Fire WIN against (Minnesota) Lynx?
06/15 10:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against (Golden State) Valkyries?
06/17 10:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wingz WIN against (Golden State) Valkyries?
06/17 10:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against (Portland) Fire?
06/20 1:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against (Atlanta) Deam?
06/20 3:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against (Phoenix) Mercury?
06/20 8:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against (Dallas) Wingz?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
44
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Connecticut 5
California 49
California 3
California 9
New Hampshire 2
California 41
California 47
California 27
New York 18
Pennsylvania 17
Ohio 13
Illinois 17
New Jersey 5
New Jersey 9
California 21
California 45
Nevada 1
Nevada 4
New Hampshire 1
Virginia 7
California 13
Michigan 3
Michigan 8
Nevada 3
Oregon 5
New York 22
Washington 8
Ohio 1
Virginia 10
Florida 23
Indiana 1
New York 3
New York 19
Arizona 6
Texas 28
Washington 3
California 22
Nebraska 2
New York 4
Virginia 2
Michigan 7
New Mexico 2
New Jersey 7
Texas 34
Colorado 8
Iowa 1
Pennsylvania 10
Arizona 1
Pennsylvania 7
New York 17
Iowa 3
Wisconsin 3
Michigan 10
Pennsylvania 8
North Carolina 1
Ohio 9
Virginia 1
Texas 15
Pennsylvania 1
Montana 1
Michigan 4
Wisconsin 1
Arizona 2
Maine 2
Colorado 3
Florida 13
Alaska at-large
California 40
97
95
94
94
94
93
93
92
92
91
90
89
89
89
88
88
88
88
88
88
87
86
86
86
86
84
83
82
82
81
81
81
81
79
79
79
78
78
78
77
76
75
74
74
72
71
71
70
69
67
65
63
62
62
57
57
56
52
51
47
43
40
38
37
31
28
13
4
OptionProbability
Bowers v. Hardwick
Humphrey's Executor v. United States
Brown v. Entertainment Merchants Association
Locke v. Davey
Carey v. Population Services International (Might be N/A'ed. See Below)
Employment Division v. Smith
Morrison v. Olson
The Slaughter House Cases
The Insular Cases
Carey v. Population Services International (Holding regarding the restrictions on the distribution of contraceptives)
Hill v. Colorado
Arizona v. United States
Nixon v. General Services Administration
Plyler v. Doe
Carey v. Population Services International (Holding regarding the advertisement of contraceptives)
New York Times v. Sullivan
Kennedy v. Louisiana
United States v. Wong Kim Ark (see note in comments)
Mapp v. Ohio
Texas v. Johnson
Jacobson v. Massachusetts
Bivens v. Six Unknown Named Agents
NLRB v. Noel Canning
United States v. Nixon
Griswold v. Connecticut
Gideon v. Wainwright
Miranda v. Arizona
Reynolds v. Sims
Romer v. Evans
Ex parte Young
Lawrence v. Texas
Obergefell v. Hodges
Batson v. Kentucky
Loving v. Virginia
100
95
52
48
46
35
35
35
34
34
31
30
27
27
26
22
22
17
16
16
15
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
6
6
6
5
3
2
OptionProbability
No State
North Carolina
Utah
Virginia
Alaska
Colorado
Florida
Michigan
Nevada
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Texas
Washington
Wyoming
Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Ohio
Oregon
Oklahoma
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Vermont
West Virginia
Wisconsin
77
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Democrats
Republicans
92
8
OptionProbability
Florida
Texas
Louisiana
Alabama
No US state landfall
Mississippi
Georgia
North Carolina
South Carolina
New Hampshire
Massachusetts
Virginia
Maine
Delaware
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Rhode Island
56
40
24
18
18
17
17
15
11
10
8
7
5
4
4
4
4
4
OptionProbability
Ned Lamont
Josh Elliott
Other
Luke Bronin
Susan Bysiewicz
Erin Stewart
Heather Somers
Bob Stefanowski
74
5
5
3
3
3
3
3
OptionProbability
Wyoming
New York
California
Texas
Arizona
Connecticut
Pennsylvania
Alaska
Montana
Maine
Michigan
Alabama
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
South Carolina
Vermont
Virginia
New Jersey
Kansas
Nebraska
Utah
72
61
60
59
59
59
59
55
55
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
41
41
41
OptionProbability
New York
Florida
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Lousisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachussets
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
54
45
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Maryland
Virginia
Wisconsin
Maine
Massachusetts
New York
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oregon
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia
Wyoming
30
17
12
9
9
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
91
88


