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Prediction markets for Conservative
When will the U.S. Supreme Court stop having a conservative majority?
Apr 12, 7:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
336718
OptionProbability
40
18
14
10
5
3
3
2
2
2
Who will become the next permanent leader of the UK Conservative Party after Kemi Badenoch?
Nov 4, 12:41 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
273991
OptionProbability
39
26
16
8
6
3
2
Will the next elected leader of the Conservative Party be their leader by the time the next general election is held?
Jul 10, 3:40 PMJul 4, 10:59 PM
24.04%chance
313408
OptionVotes
1778
563
Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?
Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM
20.9%chance
153264
OptionVotes
1946
514
Will Kemi Badenoch lead the Conservative party into the next General Election?
Jan 6, 4:29 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
23.59%chance
162406
OptionVotes
1800
556
Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?
Jul 31, 2:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
80.23%chance
201955
OptionVotes
2015
496
Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?
Jul 11, 12:24 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM
33.02%chance
181605
OptionVotes
2890
1359
Will Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?
Oct 27, 2:21 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
9.25%chance
231486
OptionVotes
1422
912
OptionVotes
972
933
Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?
Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11.84%chance
17783
OptionVotes
1095
949
Will GiveWell or Open Philanthropy fund/recommend interventions aimed at conservation of keystone species (such as vultures) by January 2030?
Jan 18, 8:44 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM
15.36%chance
11571
OptionVotes
1322
912
Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028?
Dec 12, 11:18 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
63.05%chance
11177
OptionVotes
1024
969