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Top stories

Nike Cuts 1% of Corporate Staff as CEO Hill Refocuses Business

Nike Cuts 1% of Corporate Staff as CEO Hill Refocuses Business

Authors

12

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Converse

Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?

Oct 20, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.28%chance

666655

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

859

US Supreme Court upholds Colorado's conversion therapy ban in Chiles v Salazar?

Oct 7, 6:35 PMJul 31, 6:19 PM

6.8%chance

194718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3703

270

Meaningful two-way conversation between a dolphin/whale and a human before 2040

Sep 29, 5:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33%chance

342623

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

783

Will Bonfire be more popular than Twitter for "important conversation", by July 1st 2026 (mid-year)

Feb 24, 7:17 AMJun 30, 12:01 PM

3.26%chance

182491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2795

854

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.88%chance

232149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2724

367

Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?

Dec 24, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

182116

OptionProbability

Henry Oliver

Kim Bowes

Magnus Carlsen

C Thi Nguyen

Emily Wilson

Patrick Collison (again)

Rebecca Lowe

Dean Ball

Hollis Robbins

Francis Fukuyama

Tom Holland (the historian)

Jamie Dimon

Jan Swafford

Ted Chiang

Samuel Scheffler

Martha Nussbaum

Will Baude

Bishop Robert Barron

William Gibson

Sir Demis Hassabis

Vaclav Smil

Robert Sapolsky

Jonathan Sumption

Aella

Knausgaard (again)

Kathleen Tyson

John Ioannidis

David Runciman

William Hague

Ben Goldacre

Werner Herzog

Jensen Huang

Haruki Murakami

Cremieux

Michel Houellebecq

Hillary Clinton

Oprah Winfrey

Thomas Sowell

Bill Gates

Lana Del Rey

Novak Djokovic

Dua Lipa

Bari Weiss

Scott Alexander

100

92

78

66

55

52

48

46

45

42

41

41

34

31

30

30

30

28

28

28

28

27

24

21

20

17

17

17

17

17

16

15

15

15

14

10

10

9

9

9

8

8

7

5

Will Tower ever make his infamous conversion posts?

Dec 21, 2:47 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10.46%chance

181748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1402

904

Will humans be able to have a basic conversation with whales before 2027 using LLMs?

Oct 10, 2:56 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

24.38%chance

261003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

932

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

74.79%chance

26735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

935

will I speak conversational Russian by the time I graduate Minerva University in 2028

May 24, 6:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.1%chance

7633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

978

Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?

Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.98%chance

11284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

947

Will "The funding conversation we left unfinished" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 6:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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