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Prediction markets for Converse
Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?
Oct 20, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
62.69%chance
676680
OptionVotes
1071
884
Meaningful two-way conversation between a dolphin/whale and a human before 2040
Sep 29, 5:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.32%chance
352627
OptionVotes
1049
775
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?
May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
12.28%chance
232201
OptionVotes
2673
374
OptionVotes
1402
904
When will Tyler Cowen have David Grusch as the guest on an episode of Conversations with Tyler?
Nov 29, 3:17 PMDec 6, 3:59 PM
71520
OptionProbability
34
25
22
15
1
1
1
1
Will humans be able to have a basic conversation with whales before 2027 using LLMs?
Oct 10, 2:56 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM
23.31%chance
271053
OptionVotes
1212
917
Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?
Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM
74.79%chance
26735
OptionVotes
998
935
will I speak conversational Russian by the time I graduate Minerva University in 2028
May 24, 6:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
51.1%chance
7633
OptionVotes
1022
978
Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?
Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
29.98%chance
11284
OptionVotes
1086
947
Will there be AI-generated auto-conversion of the entire matplotlib library into Haskell by 2028?
Jan 7, 5:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
9.87%chance
3250
OptionVotes
266
27
Will "The funding conversation we left unfinished" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 10, 6:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
180
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will Rahm Emanuel and Hasan Piker have a public debate or conversation this year?
Sep 18, 10:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
44.55%chance
242
OptionVotes
119
101