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Prediction markets for Converse
Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?
Oct 20, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
63.33%chance
666670
OptionVotes
1088
874
Meaningful two-way conversation between a dolphin/whale and a human before 2040
Sep 29, 5:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.32%chance
352627
OptionVotes
1049
775
Will Bonfire be more popular than Twitter for "important conversation", by July 1st 2026 (mid-year)
Feb 24, 7:17 AMJun 30, 12:01 PM
3.26%chance
182491
OptionVotes
2795
854
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?
May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
11.88%chance
232149
OptionVotes
2724
367
OptionVotes
1402
904
When will Tyler Cowen have David Grusch as the guest on an episode of Conversations with Tyler?
Nov 29, 3:17 PMDec 6, 3:59 PM
61519
OptionProbability
34
25
22
15
1
1
1
1
Will humans be able to have a basic conversation with whales before 2027 using LLMs?
Oct 10, 2:56 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM
24.38%chance
261003
OptionVotes
1162
932
Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?
Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM
74.79%chance
26735
OptionVotes
998
935
will I speak conversational Russian by the time I graduate Minerva University in 2028
May 24, 6:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
51.1%chance
7633
OptionVotes
1022
978
In which of the following years will the net rate of chemical conversion of hydrogen into hydrocarbons be positive?
Nov 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
8303
OptionProbability
35
26
21
17
Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?
Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
29.98%chance
11284
OptionVotes
1086
947
Will "The funding conversation we left unfinished" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 10, 6:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
180
OptionVotes
1000
1000