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Top stories

Nike Cuts 1% of Corporate Staff as CEO Hill Refocuses Business

Nike Cuts 1% of Corporate Staff as CEO Hill Refocuses Business

Authors

12

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Converse

Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?

Oct 20, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.33%chance

666670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

874

Will Bonfire be more popular than Twitter for "important conversation", by July 1st 2026 (mid-year)

Feb 24, 7:17 AMJun 30, 12:01 PM

2.39%chance

233419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3723

828

Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?

Dec 24, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

182749

OptionProbability

Kim Bowes

Henry Oliver

Magnus Carlsen

Dean Ball

Francis Fukuyama

Rebecca Lowe

Emily Wilson

Patrick Collison (again)

C Thi Nguyen

Tom Holland (the historian)

Jamie Dimon

Caroline Shaw

Hollis Robbins

Bishop Robert Barron

William Gibson

Robert Sapolsky

Sir Demis Hassabis

Jonathan Sumption

Ted Chiang

Samuel Scheffler

Will Baude

Jan Swafford

Knausgaard (again)

Jensen Huang

Aella

Kathleen Tyson

John Ioannidis

Werner Herzog

Vaclav Smil

Haruki Murakami

Cremieux

Michel Houellebecq

David Runciman

William Hague

Ben Goldacre

Oprah Winfrey

Dua Lipa

Hillary Clinton

Thomas Sowell

Bari Weiss

Novak Djokovic

Bill Gates

Lana Del Rey

Scott Alexander

Martha Nussbaum

100

100

66

63

57

48

46

43

42

38

38

31

29

26

26

24

23

22

21

21

20

20

19

17

17

16

16

15

15

14

14

14

13

13

13

10

10

9

9

9

8

7

7

6

0

Meaningful two-way conversation between a dolphin/whale and a human before 2040

Sep 29, 5:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.32%chance

352627

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

775

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.88%chance

232149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2724

367

Will Tower ever make his infamous conversion posts?

Dec 21, 2:47 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10.46%chance

181748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1402

904

Will humans be able to have a basic conversation with whales before 2027 using LLMs?

Oct 10, 2:56 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

24.38%chance

261003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

932

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

74.79%chance

26735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

935

will I speak conversational Russian by the time I graduate Minerva University in 2028

May 24, 6:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.1%chance

7633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

978

Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?

Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.98%chance

11284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

947

Will I get a hard conversation with my Math coach at beginning of next schoolyear?

Jun 10, 12:10 AMSep 1, 11:59 PM

19.1%chance

4194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

49

Will "The funding conversation we left unfinished" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 6:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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