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Prediction markets for COOP
Will Roy Cooper run for and be elected Senator for North Carolina in 2026?
Feb 21, 5:15 PMNov 11, 4:59 AM
77.68%chance
83042
OptionVotes
2505
838
Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?
Jul 11, 12:24 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM
33.02%chance
181605
OptionVotes
2890
1359
What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?
Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
79.98%chance
161313
OptionVotes
1208
921
AI beats Portal 2 Cooperative mode with a human (or itself) by what date?
Jul 19, 6:17 PMDec 31, 6:10 PM
7771
Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?
Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.22%chance
21624
OptionVotes
1103
754
Will Saudi Arabia join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization by the end of 2025?
Jul 5, 2:51 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
33.16%chance
9183
OptionVotes
229
162
OptionVotes
173
160
Will "Towards more cooperative AI safety strategies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jul 16, 8:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
17.36%chance
2100
OptionVotes
1036
803
Will Roy Cooper win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election?
Jul 1, 12:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
76.88%chance
590
OptionVotes
182
55
OptionProbability
78
6
4
3
3
3
3
Will Saudi Arabia join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization by the end of 2030?
Jul 5, 2:50 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
53.53%chance
440
OptionVotes
92
87
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