OptionProbability
The Full Term
Between 1 and 2 Years
Between 2 and 3 Years
Between 3 and 4 Years
More than the Full Term
<1 Year
46
15
14
7
4
US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated. All surface ships bigger than 10 tons. Small subs also not counted
Regular opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3 more times. Like the State TV/IRIB satellite hack.
A brigade or base commander in any city switches sides
One or more Town(s), city(s), declare as free of iran regime control for over 2 days
Interim council fractures, or all current dead or one member defects publicly
High Profile flips - 2+ named officers go on video via Starlink calling on units to stand down or defect.
100
69
56
48
32
Have been born after the first plane was hijacked on 9/11
Be a President or other kind of non-royal, non-coup Head of State
Be a man (cis or trans)
Take office on or before 2034-03-29 (ten years from market creation)
Be a Prime Minister, meaning a head of government, not head of state, most often elected by the legislature
Be considered broadly left-wing in their country
Be a monarch or a monarch's representative/regent
Have been married
Have been in custody
Rule a country that's in the bottom 10% by area
Rule an African country
Rule a country with same-sex marriage
Rule a country that's not a UN member as of market creation
Not rule by heredity, and be related to someone who is or was also a state leader during their lifetime
Come to power as the result of a coup
Be out as LGBTQIA+
Have used a prediction market
84
70
67
57
54
52
50
47
43
38
26
25
24
21
9
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1159
928
0–1
2
3
4 +
30
6
432
72
139
145
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