Court of Appeals News

Will SCOTUS strike down the preemptive pardons if it considers the case?

Jan 20, 2:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20%chance

3814920

OptionVotes

YES

18124

6187

Will the GitHub Copilot Litigation Succeed?

Dec 8, 2:52 AMDec 7, 5:00 AM

10.08%chance

12410434

OptionVotes

YES

4399

1460

Will the CCRC refer Lucy Letby's case to the Court of Appeal?

Sep 9, 7:51 AMSep 1, 10:59 PM

40.92%chance

1510159

OptionVotes

YES

1202

832

Supreme Court upholds unconstitutionality of broad tariffs?

May 29, 12:35 AMJan 1, 1:23 AM

57%chance

385116

OptionVotes

YES

1151

869

Impeach the Judge who blocked DOGE from accessing U.S. Treasury records? How far will this go?

Feb 9, 9:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

203245

OptionProbability

Initiation and Investigation: A member or committee of the House of Representatives begins impeachment proceedings. The House Judiciary Committee investigates the allegations of misconduct

Charges: If the committee finds sufficient evidence, it acts as a prosecutor and brings charges against the judge.

The U.S. Court of Appeals or the Supreme Court overturns Judge Engelmayer's ruling to block Executive cabinet and staffers from accessing U.S. Treasury records, and no impeachment proceedings are initiated by May 9, 2025.

House Votes YES to Impeach: The entire House of Representatives votes on the impeachment. A simple majority is required to impeach the judge.

Senate Trial and Removal: If impeached, the case is referred to the Senate for a trial. A two-thirds majority vote in the Senate is required to convict and remove the judge from office.

100

The Five Proud Boys Leaders get one dollar or more compensatory or punitive damages.

Jun 7, 5:52 PMJun 7, 5:46 PM

48.81%chance

4546

OptionVotes

YES

1024

976

When will a US court first rule that an AI is legally a person?

Dec 27, 11:36 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

38.69%chance

15423

OptionProbability

YES

1070

804

Will Donald Trump get more judges appointed in his second term than his first?

Nov 7, 2:42 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM

59.42%chance

5410

OptionVotes

YES

1210

826

Will an animal in the US be recognized as a person by US courts before 2030?

Sep 11, 9:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.56%chance

12373

OptionVotes

YES

1075

955

Disney vs Midjourney lawsuit

Jun 22, 12:18 PMJan 1, 11:53 AM

5220

OptionProbability

Lawsuit is settled out of court

Lawsuit over before 2029

Midjourney implements content filters to prevent copyright infringement²

Lawsuit over before 2028

Midjorney pays Disney and/or Universal⁴

Midjourney appeals the court's decision

Midjourney continues operations without changes at the end³

Lawsuit over before 2027

Midjourney no longer provides image generation by the end of it¹

Midjourney agrees to licensing terms with Disney and/or Universal

Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day Tarrifs?

May 14, 2:40 AMMar 2, 3:34 AM

54.43%chance

9171

OptionVotes

YES

114

Will the US Appeals Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

8100

OptionVotes

YES

200

Court of Appeals News

Prediction markets for Court of Appeals

Prediction markets for Court of Appeals

Prediction markets for Court of Appeals

Will SCOTUS strike down the preemptive pardons if it considers the case?

Will the GitHub Copilot Litigation Succeed?

Will the CCRC refer Lucy Letby's case to the Court of Appeal?

Supreme Court upholds unconstitutionality of broad tariffs?

Impeach the Judge who blocked DOGE from accessing U.S. Treasury records? How far will this go?

The Five Proud Boys Leaders get one dollar or more compensatory or punitive damages.

When will a US court first rule that an AI is legally a person?

Will Donald Trump get more judges appointed in his second term than his first?

Will an animal in the US be recognized as a person by US courts before 2030?

Disney vs Midjourney lawsuit

Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day Tarrifs?

Will the US Appeals Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

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