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Top stories

Supreme Court Pressed to Uphold State Bans on Conversion Therapy for Youth

Supreme Court Pressed to Uphold State Bans on Conversion Therapy for Youth

Authors

6

1 year ago

Clinton Warns Supreme Court May Overturn Same-Sex Marriage

Clinton Warns Supreme Court May Overturn Same-Sex Marriage

Authors

5

1 year ago

Louisiana Urges Supreme Court to Strike VRA’s Section 2, End Race-Based Maps

Louisiana Urges Supreme Court to Strike VRA’s Section 2, End Race-Based Maps

Authors

14

1 year ago

Executive Orders

Trump Order Targeting Flag Burning Tests First-Amendment Limits

Authors

15

1 year ago

US Foreign Policy

Brazil’s Haddad Meeting With U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent Canceled; Eduardo Bolsonaro Lobbies for 50% Tariff Amid U.S. Sanctions Consideration

Authors

9

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Court

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16%chance

364112279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2272

996

Will the US Supreme Court overturn gay marriage [Obergefell v. Hodges] before 2030?

Aug 22, 11:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.24%chance

12966236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20771

3683

Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?

Jul 18, 2:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.7%chance

1739662

OptionVotes

YES

NO

44399

7886

[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.46%chance

7133220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5473

4989

Will the U.S. Supreme Court hold Trump or a member of his Cabinet in contempt?

Apr 28, 7:36 PMFeb 28, 8:36 PM

7.4%chance

2928884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

35379

2827

Will the CCRC refer Lucy Letby's case to the Court of Appeal?

Sep 9, 7:51 AMAug 27, 10:59 PM

30%chance

2312072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1529

655

When will the U.S. Supreme Court stop having a conservative majority?

Apr 12, 7:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

336819

OptionProbability

After 2070 (or never)

2036-2040

2029-2035

2061-2065

2041-2045

2046-2050

2066-2070

By 2028

2051-2055

2056-2060

40

18

14

10

5

3

3

2

2

2

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

406214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3162

2308

William Baude admitted to Supreme Court Bar by EOY2030?

Jun 7, 10:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.69%chance

124778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11353

8808

Did Donald Trump have sex with a minor (underage)? (Sworn court testimony or similar, by 2028-01-01.)

Jul 25, 1:00 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

35.12%chance

524200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

237

If the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact comes into effect before 2029, will the Supreme Court block it?

Nov 5, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.07%chance

121035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10039

9943

Will the Supreme Court issue a merits decision that limits or overturns state or local rent-control laws before 2030?

Nov 23, 1:47 AMJan 2, 1:46 AM

33.02%chance

8850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2129

1474

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