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Prediction markets for Covid
OptionVotes
13959
7310
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
19.25%chance
183266085
OptionVotes
17639
7122
Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Mar 31, 12:45 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
25.12%chance
9339567
OptionVotes
1470
879
Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?
Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM
80%chance
4624367
OptionVotes
3882
2007
OptionVotes
1273
642
OptionVotes
2132
294
OptionVotes
1179
856
In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine?
Sep 16, 4:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
63.14%chance
381771
OptionVotes
1344
716
OptionProbability
27
25
24
7
5
3
3
2
2
2
1
Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?
Jan 11, 6:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
36.95%chance
301356
OptionVotes
1115
694
Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?
Feb 29, 11:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM
63.21%chance
241238
OptionVotes
1488
437
Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.
Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM
62.31%chance
13532
OptionVotes
1286
778
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