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Top stories

UK Shoplifting Hits Record High as Police Chief Urges Public to Step In

UK Shoplifting Hits Record High as Police Chief Urges Public to Step In

Authors

11

17 hours ago

Prediction markets for Crime

Will Austin Chen (Manifold cofounder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 19, 3:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

7647173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3154

1257

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

59.86%chance

35730149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2264

2144

Elon Musk charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025

Feb 3, 12:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.79%chance

4421879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21175

7616

Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92.38%chance

11314826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6748

407

One of Elon Musk’s college aged henchmen charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025

Feb 3, 5:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.13%chance

2813985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20852

5932

Cluely founders convicted of crime before 2028?

May 28, 2:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.25%chance

1212067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1676

597

Will Trump pardon crimes related to deceiving the public about UFO's before 2026?

Jan 27, 3:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

10%chance

52572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2767

100

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:47 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

73.84%chance

151472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1936

988

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

86.78%chance

221450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2411

1180

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 9:56 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

28.12%chance

121007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1017

Will Drake be formally charged with a crime before the end of 2028?

May 5, 1:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.26%chance

29722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2372

1816

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

60.73%chance

18676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1740

1045

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 13, 2025
Aug 13, 2025
Britain
Crime
Politics
UK Shoplifting Hits Record High as Police Chief Urges Public to Step In
Authors
11
17 hours ago

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