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Prediction markets for Crime Intelligence
Will it be revealed that at least 3 people with Wikipedia articles have done IQ selection on their children before 2028?
Jun 27, 4:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
76.53%chance
523580
OptionVotes
1551
658
OptionProbability
36
29
23
19
If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?
Jun 5, 4:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
24%chance
431593
OptionVotes
178
56
Will Avraham Eisenberg be freed from incarceration before the development of AGI?
Jan 7, 5:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
17.89%chance
151304
OptionVotes
1541
705
Will there be laws protecting digital artificial intelligences from hate crimes in the USA by the end of 2060?
Apr 4, 8:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
54.79%chance
13635
OptionVotes
1291
649
Conditional on California SB 1047 law, will an AI cause $500 million in damage by end of 2026?
Aug 9, 4:49 PMDec 30, 7:59 AM
6570
OptionProbability
67
31
1
1
Will someone be prosecuted for a hate crime against a digital artificial intelligence in the USA by the end of 2060?
Apr 4, 8:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
43.97%chance
18565
OptionVotes
1030
955
Will there be laws protecting digital artificial intelligences from hate crimes in the USA by the end of 2030?
Jun 30, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.36%chance
9416
OptionVotes
266
38
Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]
Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
51%chance
759
OptionVotes
156
143
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