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Criminal Investigation News

    Prediction markets for Criminal Investigation

    OptionProbability

    call someone retarded through text or speech

    Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)

    A literal red line on the ground/floor

    complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela

    Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.

    repeal or reform the dietary guidelines

    request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts

    explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue

    complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    Stays alive

    pass 500 or more executive orders

    intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican

    new blockade of a country

    Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)

    have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally

    forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc

    declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country

    request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts

    put his name on a ship in the navy

    call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician

    order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen

    refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state

    complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts

    sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries

    File lawsuit against a congressperson

    Revoke ten or more citizenships

    Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO

    Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws

    Says 6 7 (or variant)

    Dep

    Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities

    Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes

    ten or more protestors killed during term

    Causes Tina Peters' early release

    resume buying oil from Russia

    Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

    sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission

    Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools

    postpones or cancels 2026 senate elections in at least one state

    Pardon himself

    closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)

    have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025

    Raise the retirement age for social security

    Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)

    Nominate a family member to high office

    Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS

    have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason

    Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson

    Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture

    get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia

    Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)

    Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)

    Call for the end of the Senate

    Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025

    Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)

    Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.

    Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest

    Raise contribution limits (FEC)

    add a new federal holiday in his honor

    Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)

    have a journalist arrested

    Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress

    Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere

    call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech

    remove a major non NATO ally from the current list

    Pardon a convicted pedophile

    repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025

    End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)

    host putin at mar a lago

    Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)

    Salute Putin

    Enforce the Comstock Act at least once

    federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)

    force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt

    complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)

    Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill

    Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)

    issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future

    classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire

    department of defense renamed to Dept of war

    Get rid of Noaa.

    Pardon ghislaine maxwell

    Implement a federal abortion ban

    Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture

    force a former president to testify before Congress

    Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

    appoint a family member to lead any federal agency

    Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime

    Pardon p diddy

    stops all sanctions on Russia

    enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like

    Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground

    Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)

    Withdraw from NATO

    Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment

    Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)

    revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like

    Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics

    Implement a federal age of consent

    Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system

    Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation

    Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps

    Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.

    Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election

    All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump

    Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

    repeal Obamacare

    pardon derek chauvin

    admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely

    Add a citizenship question to the census

    confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself

    confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person

    debank a congressperson governor or mayor

    Enact price controls on groceries

    Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard

    announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA

    expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new

    Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025

    Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency

    Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons

    actually disinter bodies from another country

    Call for the end of child marriage

    Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day

    Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906

    change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again

    orders arrests of any Biden family member

    delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday

    federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms

    Prosecute someone for flag burning

    His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory

    Announce he’s running for a third term

    cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down

    Call for the death penalty of any former president by name

    all time high unemployment reached

    Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.

    Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education

    Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security

    Prevent the VA from covering abortion services

    Replace his Vice President

    Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt

    Causes derek chauvin's early release

    declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon

    Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection

    cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason

    Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)

    Attack a NATO ally.

    Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)

    expand the borders of the usa

    remove tax exempt from only certain religions

    have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed

    threaten to disinter bodies from another country

    Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)

    fauci in jail at least one week

    take control of a part of ukraine

    add a new state

    pardon george santos

    take state ownership in an airline

    Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990

    ban trans people from holding federal offices

    changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)

    Annex any part of Mexico

    ends black history month

    Eliminate the DOE Loan Program

    Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act

    take control of a part of greenland

    New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)

    Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.

    Call for the end of gay marriage

    Fully or partially privatize Social Security

    Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA

    Postpone the elections due to emergency

    make statements that are negative about labubu

    Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

    Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation

    Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment

    breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza

    Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war

    fully nationalize an airline

    stop California from hosting the Olympics

    Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics

    ban all new incoming students from china and/or india

    Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC

    change or add a face on Mount Rushmore

    change the borders of a state

    breaks ground on a trump building in Russia

    repeal an amendment

    declares a white history month

    Call for the end of the House of Reps

    give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia

    enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea

    After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy

    Call for the end of interracial marriage

    Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

    bans anime

    Wearing a white dress after labor day

    Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace

    bans 6 7

    Kidnap the Pope

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    Is "jerky" a reference to human meat in Epstein files?

    Feb 15, 6:14 AMDec 31, 6:12 AM
    10.88%chance
    204888

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2863

    349

    Will Pete Hegseth go to prison?

    Dec 21, 5:14 AMDec 21, 5:12 AM
    133629

    OptionProbability

    Not before 31 December 2030

    in 2030

    in 2028

    in 2029

    in 2026

    in 2027

    75

    9

    6

    6

    2

    2

    OptionProbability

    Nothing other than the actual pizza food

    Interactions with (incl. sexual exploitation of) underage girls

    Other

    Child exploitation materials

    Adrenochrome

    46

    24

    15

    11

    3

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2562

    856

    Doping case guilt tracker - Cycling + Triathlon

    Feb 11, 8:40 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    71082

    OptionProbability

    Miguel Angel Lopez

    Shari Bossuyt

    Germán Darío Gómez

    Nairo Quintana

    Michel Hessman

    91

    80

    76

    26

    0

    Will the ICC prosecute a US citizen before 2035?

    May 27, 8:36 AMMar 3, 9:59 PM
    46.33%chance
    10606

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1076

    929

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    175

    57

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    230

    84

    Will PCC have infiltrated the Brazilian Judiciary before 2033?

    Jun 24, 2:51 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM
    67.76%chance
    546

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    98

    51

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