OptionProbability
US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility
Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)
UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution
Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem
Iranian General killed inside Iran
Donald Trump declares victory
Iranian government official declares victory
China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal
US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days
Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours
War Ends in June
War ends in 2025
500+ Iranian civilians killed
US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year
Fordow facility successfully bombed
Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal
Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%
Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"
Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed
There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.
The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict
Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)
A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)
Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace
Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA
Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours
Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%
Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason
>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict
At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities
A second cease-fire is announced
USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution
Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz
>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict
Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict
Israel government dissolves
USA conducts a second bombing in Iran
A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed
Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours
Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil
Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)
Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Iran launches a cruise missile
Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz
Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform
Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA
Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.
Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally
Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council
War ends in July
Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel
Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)
Iran tests a nuclear weapon
A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank
State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran
Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed
Iranian government dissolves
UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes
Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day
Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar
Saudi Arabia attacks Iran
WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)
Qatar attacks Iran
≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict
Iran regime change
Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)
Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi
There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.
Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025
Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026
Total casualties exceed 10,000
US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)
Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran
Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)
Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive
A nuclear weapon is used offensively.
Ayatollah Khamenei Is already dead (June 26)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
97
97
94
77
66
39
28
25
20
19
17
12
12
11
10
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4
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4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
0
OptionProbability
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
pass 500 or more executive orders
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
Stays alive
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
Revoke ten or more citizenships
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Pardon himself
File lawsuit against a congressperson
have a journalist arrested
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
new blockade of a country
Prosecute someone for flag burning
Pardon a convicted pedophile
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
resume buying oil from Russia
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
call someone retarded through text or speech
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
Dep
Nominate a family member to high office
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
put his name on a ship in the navy
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Announce he’s running for a third term
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
ten or more protestors killed during term
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Causes Tina Peters' early release
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Pardon p diddy
Add a citizenship question to the census
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
take state ownership in an airline
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
add a new federal holiday in his honor
take control of a part of ukraine
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
Replace his Vice President
stops all sanctions on Russia
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
force a former president to testify before Congress
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
expand the borders of the usa
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
repeal Obamacare
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
actually disinter bodies from another country
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
orders arrests of any Biden family member
repeal an amendment
Enact price controls on groceries
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
host putin at mar a lago
make statements that are negative about labubu
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
take control of a part of greenland
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
declares a white history month
ends black history month
all time high unemployment reached
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Implement a federal age of consent
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
stop California from hosting the Olympics
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
Causes derek chauvin's early release
fully nationalize an airline
Says 6 7 (or variant)
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
pardon derek chauvin
Raise the retirement age for social security
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
Salute Putin
Withdraw from NATO
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Call for the end of child marriage
Call for the end of gay marriage
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
Annex any part of Mexico
change the borders of a state
add a new state
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
Call for the end of the House of Reps
Call for the end of the Senate
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
fauci in jail at least one week
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
ban trans people from holding federal offices
Implement a federal abortion ban
bans anime
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
Call for the end of interracial marriage
Wearing a white dress after labor day
bans 6 7
pardon george santos
100
99
95
94
88
88
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82
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81
77
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3
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2
2
2
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
32549
4033
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1812
891
OptionProbability
Alan Dershowitz
Option deleted. Don't vote!
Bill Clinton
Donald Trump
50
50
34
19
OptionVotes
YES
NO
577
17
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1151
869
OptionVotes
YES
NO
390
26
OptionVotes
YES
NO
465
83
OptionVotes
NO
YES
192
23
OptionVotes
YES
NO
206
49
OptionVotes
YES
NO
119
84

