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Cyclones News

    Prediction markets for Cyclones

    Which names will be used for hurricanes in the 2025 Hurricane Season?

    May 23, 6:52 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
    77588

    OptionProbability

    Erin

    Imelda

    Humberto

    Jerry

    Karen

    Melissa

    Gabrielle

    Lorenzo

    Olga

    Nestor

    Pablo

    Rebekah

    Sebastian

    Fernand

    Tanya

    Van

    Wendy

    Andrea

    Barry

    Chantal

    Dexter

    100

    69

    66

    65

    55

    55

    54

    50

    47

    45

    37

    34

    20

    18

    10

    6

    5

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season worse than 2017?

    Jun 30, 10:13 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM
    5.65%chance
    95751

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    4085

    245

    🆒CoolFold 25 Challenge: What will these 25 values be at EOY 2025?

    Jan 3, 3:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    504920

    OptionProbability

    Number of president executive orders in 2025

    Number of USA presidential pardons in 2025

    Doomsday Clock seconds to midnight

    Largest earthquake in 2025 (eg 7.5 would be 75%)

    Bitcoin value (eg 50K would be 50%)

    How many total videos on Joseph Anderson's Youtube Channel

    Age of Nobel Peace Prize winner in 2025

    How many countries recognize the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic

    How many nuclear power plants operating in the USA

    Number of Republican Senators

    Highest Number of Home Runs hit by a single player in 2025 MLB season

    Last 2 digits of Minecraft Bedrock's most recent patch (eg 1.50.30 would be 30%)

    Latest ChatGPT version number released (eg 6.5 would be 65%)

    How many new shows on Broadway in 2025

    How many points the winning Superbowl team has

    Jersey number of the Cy Young award winner

    How many US states have legalized recreational marijuana

    How many points the losing Superbowl team has

    Manifold's average MAU (eg 25k would be 25%)

    How many SpaceX Launches in Dec of 2025

    Jersey number of the Heisman trophy winner

    Number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic hurricane season

    Number of anime profile pics in Manifold's top 100 traders

    Number of trillion dollar companies

    Jersey number of the NBA rookie of the year

    99

    99

    90

    88

    83

    67

    59

    56

    55

    53

    51

    50

    50

    49

    40

    37

    30

    22

    22

    21

    19

    18

    17

    9

    6

    Will the NHC use the term "Gulf of America" to refer to the Gulf of Mexco in any 2025 tropical cyclone advisories?

    Jan 21, 2:24 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM
    97.16%chance
    101258

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    585

    17

    Will there be a William storm before a Kate storm?

    May 6, 7:16 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM
    4.29%chance
    3702

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    472

    21

    Exit valuation of Cyclone (YC S23)?

    Sep 14, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
    270

    OptionProbability

    Less than $10M or bankrupt

    $10M - $100M

    $100M - $1B

    $1B+

    63

    16

    10

    10

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