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Cyclones News

    Prediction markets for Cyclones

    OptionProbability

    Number of president executive orders in 2025

    Number of USA presidential pardons in 2025

    Number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic hurricane season

    Doomsday Clock seconds to midnight

    Largest earthquake in 2025 (eg 7.5 would be 75%)

    Bitcoin value (eg 50K would be 50%)

    How many total videos on Joseph Anderson's Youtube Channel

    Highest Number of Home Runs hit by a single player in 2025 MLB season

    Age of Nobel Peace Prize winner in 2025

    How many countries recognize the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic

    How many nuclear power plants operating in the USA

    Number of Republican Senators

    Latest ChatGPT version number released (eg 6.5 would be 65%)

    How many new shows on Broadway in 2025

    How many points the winning Superbowl team has

    Last 2 digits of Minecraft Bedrock's most recent patch (eg 1.50.30 would be 30%)

    Average of the Jersey numbers of the Cy Young award winner

    How many US states have legalized recreational marijuana

    How many points the losing Superbowl team has

    How many SpaceX Launches in Dec of 2025

    Number of anime profile pics in Manifold's top 100 traders

    Jersey number of the Heisman trophy winner

    Number of trillion dollar companies

    Manifold's average MAU (eg 25k would be 25%)

    Jersey number of the NBA rookie of the year

    99

    99

    99

    90

    88

    87

    67

    60

    58

    56

    55

    53

    51

    48

    40

    36

    30

    30

    22

    20

    17

    10

    9

    8

    6

    Will there be a William storm before a Kate storm?

    May 6, 7:16 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM
    4.29%chance
    3702

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    472

    21

    Exit valuation of Cyclone (YC S23)?

    Sep 14, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
    270

    OptionProbability

    Less than $10M or bankrupt

    $10M - $100M

    $100M - $1B

    $1B+

    63

    16

    10

    10

    2025–26 Australian region cyclone season above average

    Oct 25, 8:01 AMJun 29, 11:59 PM
    45.25%chance
    110

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    210

    191

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