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Prediction markets for DA
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?
Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
15.89%chance
286686677
OptionVotes
22659
4871
This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.
Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
74%chance
293621168
OptionVotes
2825
2569
Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
51.96%chance
41288771
OptionVotes
10989
10747
OptionVotes
10050
9950
Will I think the "AI has a data bottleneck" people are dumb before the end of 2025?
Jan 26, 11:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
57.68%chance
225271
OptionVotes
12078
8128
Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026?
Feb 14, 1:02 AMFeb 15, 7:59 AM
46.76%chance
202135
OptionVotes
10868
9165
OptionProbability
94
62
50
28
26
Will Brazilian President Lula da Silva say or do anything controversial in August?
Jul 30, 4:37 PMAug 15, 11:59 PM
65.68%chance
9149
OptionVotes
138
72
OptionVotes
114
88
Da li će Mario Vrećo i dalje biti drug sa Brankom do kraja 2025. godine
Jan 11, 2:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
56.94%chance
115
OptionVotes
115
87
Will there be a tomb raider game about exhuming the grave of a scientist/genius (eg da vinci) for their DNA by 2030
Jan 22, 11:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.98%chance
110
OptionVotes
80
62
Da li će Mario Vrećo izbaciti klip u 2025. godini koji će do kraja 2025. doći do 1M pregleda
Jan 11, 2:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100
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