OptionProbability
3b) A taxonomy of selection hacking, >3 comments
5b) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, >3 comments
6b) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, >3 comments
1c) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, posted EoY 2026
8b) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, >3 comments
2b) Prediction markets for good, >3 comments
3a) A taxonomy of selection hacking, >50 upvotes
1b) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, >3 comments
2c) Prediction markets for good, posted EoY 2026
7b) DCI Concrete projects, >3 comments
5a) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, >50 upvotes
2a) Prediction markets for good, >50 upvotes
7a) DCI Concrete projects, >50 upvotes
8a) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, >50 upvotes
4b) Generalisation splitting, >3 comments
1a) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, >50 upvotes
6a) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, >50 upvotes
5c) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, posted EoY 2026
3c) A taxonomy of selection hacking, posted EoY 2026
7c) DCI Concrete projects, posted EoY 2026
6c) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, posted EoY 2026
8c) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, posted EoY 2026
4a) Generalisation splitting, >50 upvotes
4c) Generalisation splitting, posted EoY 2026
86
80
77
74
73
69
67
64
58
57
56
54
52
50
48
44
8) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 1 year
2) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 1 year later
7) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 6 months
1) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 6 months later
3) I consider the work produced useful 6 months later
6) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 1 year
9) At least three papers from the agenda get published at top conferences or have companion LessWrong posts with >100 upvotes within 2 years
4) I consider the work produced useful 1 year later
5) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 6 months
79
63
61
55
42
37