OptionProbability
8a) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, >50 upvotes
8c) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, posted EoY 2026
3b) A taxonomy of selection hacking, >3 comments
5b) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, >3 comments
6b) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, >3 comments
1c) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, posted EoY 2026
4c) Generalisation splitting, posted EoY 2026
8b) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, >3 comments
2b) Prediction markets for good, >3 comments
3a) A taxonomy of selection hacking, >50 upvotes
1b) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, >3 comments
2c) Prediction markets for good, posted EoY 2026
7b) DCI Concrete projects, >3 comments
5a) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, >50 upvotes
2a) Prediction markets for good, >50 upvotes
7a) DCI Concrete projects, >50 upvotes
4b) Generalisation splitting, >3 comments
1a) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, >50 upvotes
6a) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, >50 upvotes
5c) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, posted EoY 2026
3c) A taxonomy of selection hacking, posted EoY 2026
7c) DCI Concrete projects, posted EoY 2026
6c) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, posted EoY 2026
4a) Generalisation splitting, >50 upvotes
100
86
80
77
75
74
73
69
67
64
58
57
56
54
52
50
48
44
8) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 1 year
2) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 1 year later
7) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 6 months
1) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 6 months later
3) I consider the work produced useful 6 months later
6) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 1 year
9) At least three papers from the agenda get published at top conferences or have companion LessWrong posts with >100 upvotes within 2 years
4) I consider the work produced useful 1 year later
5) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 6 months
79
63
61
55
42
37