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Top stories

Sheinbaum Denies 4T Fracture as U.S. Officials Praise Detention of Sinaloa Cartel Leader Ismael Zambada

Sheinbaum Denies 4T Fracture as U.S. Officials Praise Detention of Sinaloa Cartel Leader Ismael Zambada

Authors

8

10 months ago

DEA's Terry Cole Accuses Venezuela, Linked to Cartel of the Suns, of Working with ELN, FARC to Send Record Cocaine to U.S.; VP Delcy Rodríguez Denies

DEA's Terry Cole Accuses Venezuela, Linked to Cartel of the Suns, of Working with ELN, FARC to Send Record Cocaine to U.S.; VP Delcy Rodríguez Denies

Authors

8

10 months ago

Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum Seeks Return of $15 Billion from El Mayo Zambada to Aid Poor; US Offers $10 Million Reward for Jesús Alfredo Guzmán

Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum Seeks Return of $15 Billion from El Mayo Zambada to Aid Poor; US Offers $10 Million Reward for Jesús Alfredo Guzmán

Authors

8

10 months ago

US Domestic Policy

President Trump Considers Marijuana Rescheduling to Schedule III, Following 2024 Biden Proposal and Supporting Veterans’ Medical Treatments

Authors

6

10 months ago

US Foreign Policy

Mexico's Sheinbaum Denies DEA Agreement on 'Proyecto Portero,' Affirms Limits on DEA Operations Amid Venezuela-U.S. Tensions

Authors

22

10 months ago

US Domestic Policy

AG Pam Bondi Rescinds D.C. Sanctuary Policies, Deputizes Secret Service, Sends 32 Letters to Mayors, Warns of Federalizing Cities

Authors

16

10 months ago

US Offers $10 Million Reward for Iván Archivaldo Guzmán, DEA-Listed Sinaloa Cartel Leader; Arrest Made in Gulf Cartel, Zambada Pleads Guilty

Authors

9

10 months ago

Prediction markets for DEA

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

18.08%chance

10048532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1573

1344

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.6%chance

10842720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11866

8858

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.7%chance

14336408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5405

1263

Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war

Mar 31, 11:32 AMJun 23, 5:59 AM

65%chance

8733404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1507

302

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.04%chance

10223583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2349

1658

What will be Trump's cause of death?

Mar 31, 8:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10322729

OptionProbability

Heart Attack

Other

Stroke

Assassination

Cancer

38

27

16

10

9

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8516515

OptionProbability

Palantir

OpenAI

Other

xAI

Anthropic

Anduril

Google

Facebook

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Mistral

17

15

15

13

11

10

7

6

5

1

1

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.1%chance

184504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12481

8012

Will Snoop Dogg live to see marijuana completely descheduled federally by the DEA in the USA?

Mar 25, 2:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.35%chance

622443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1505

873

Will any major three letter USA federal agency stop operating before 2045, if yes, which one first?

Aug 27, 7:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19885

OptionProbability

no

DOC

DHS

Other

FDA

CDC

DOE

NSA

ICE

DEA

SEC

CIA

FBI

DOD

FCC

DOJ

DOT

29

12

10

8

7

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will any SSRIs be DEA-scheduled before Trump leaves office?

Feb 16, 8:47 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

5.39%chance

14680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

419

24

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?

Sep 8, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.96%chance

9573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

372

367

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