DEA News
Top stories
Prediction markets for DEA
Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?
Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM
18.08%chance
10048532
OptionVotes
1573
1344
Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030
Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.75%chance
10842699
OptionVotes
11769
8879
If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?
Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.7%chance
14336408
OptionVotes
5405
1263
OptionVotes
2359
424
OptionProbability
38
29
17
10
6
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
45.98%chance
9519841
OptionVotes
2264
1728
If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?
Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8516507
OptionProbability
17
16
15
13
11
10
7
6
5
1
1
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?
Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
41.32%chance
143736
OptionVotes
11916
8392
Will Snoop Dogg live to see marijuana completely descheduled federally by the DEA in the USA?
Mar 25, 2:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
72.35%chance
622443
OptionVotes
1505
873
Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2030?
Feb 11, 7:17 PMFeb 18, 11:59 PM
51.25%chance
331312
OptionVotes
1075
906
Will any major three letter USA federal agency stop operating before 2045, if yes, which one first?
Aug 27, 7:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
19885
OptionProbability
29
12
10
8
7
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
Will any SSRIs be DEA-scheduled before Trump leaves office?
Feb 16, 8:47 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM
5.39%chance
14680
OptionVotes
419
24




