Deadline News

The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic

The Pentagon declares Anthropic a "supply chain risk"

Anthropic files a lawsuit against the federal government

A judge grants an injunction against the Department of War

An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation

OpenAI signs a contract substantially weaker than Anthropic's requirements

The Department of War signs a deal to use OpenAI models instead

Anthropic's "supply chain risk" designation removed before 2027

The supply chain risk designation is officially issued

An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation And survives unblocked by other courts for 6 months

Anthropic's "supply chain risk" designation removed before July

The government offers the same terms to Anthropic as to OpenAI

Resignation letter signed by at least 5 OpenAI employees

Anthropic's contract is publicly available

US company with >100B total valuation cancels some Pentagon contract and uses Anthropic supply chain risk designation as stated justification

OpenAI's new contract is publicly available

The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act

Dario Amodei leaves or is removed from Anthropic

Anthropic gives the government unfettered access of their own accord (they "cave in")

The Pentagon designates Anthropic a supply chain risk, AND invokes the Defense Production Act

Autonomous weapon + surveillance Claude safeguards are removed for the Pentagon

Resignation letter signed by at least 5 Anthropic researchers

Will Amazon have to divest / break with Anthropic in 2026?

Anthropic stops advancing AI capabilities

The Pentagon continues to use Anthropic services without the requested changes (autonomous weapon + mass surveillance of americans)

Compatible with Switch 1 Joy-Cons (even if only Bluetooth)

Backwards compatible with physical Switch 1 games

Backwards compatible with digital Switch 1 games

Crossplay with Switch 1 in any first-party game released within the first 6 months after launch

Multiple launch SKUs

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "Mario" in the name

Name of the console contains the word "Switch"

The name of the console is correctly leaked over two weeks before it is revealed

Launch day system software includes a Mii maker

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "World" in the name

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) that also came out/is coming out for Switch 1

Backwards compatible with physical Switch 1 games, AND allows you to play a better looking or performing version of at least one Switch 1 game with the original Switch 1 cartridge within 6 months of the console launching

Joy-Cons can be used as a mouse

A new pro controller will be released on the same day the console comes out

New SKU not available at launch available within one year after release

More than two themes before 2027

Any launch SKU has a MSRP not ending in "9.99" in the US

Name of the console contains the word "Super"

Name of the console contains the word "New"

Any launch SKU has an OLED screen

Over 180 days between reveal and release (July 15 deadline)

Revealed this week (before September 21st, 11:59:59pm ET)

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "Zelda" in the name

Launch day system software includes an internet browser (general-purpose browser that deliberately allows access to the wider Web, like the 3DS or Wii U browser)

No launch SKU has 12GB RAM

No launch SKU has 256GB storage

Name of at least one launch SKU contains "XL"

The cheapest launch SKU costs ≤$300

Will have some kind of "achievements" or "trophies" system (under any name)

The Joy-Cons have inside-out tracking (via camera or LiDAR)

Has a social media or video-sharing service called Vidmiio (announced or available by launch)

First-party Joy-Cons attach or detach using electromagnets

The site has content before June 1, 2026

The site has content before July 1, 2026

It contains at least some text

The site has content before January 1, 2027

It's completely stupid

It's about extraterrestrial life

contains debunked media of space alien activity

Documents declassified for the first time are on the site

Mention of Roswell on site

Mention of Area 51 on site

it's about immigration

Implies/suggests/states that UFO's are demons.

Is significantly geo-restricted, for example the content cannot be viewed in Europe or some USA states without using a VPN.

By May 1st, 2026, site contents unequivocally state UAP craft exist, but does not unequivocally state non-human intelligence exists

It's about mexicans

Contains AI images or video presented in a way that viewers are supposed to think they're real.

implies race supremacy/ethnocentrism is real (genetic/cultural/preordained)

It's an advert for a product a private company is selling, such as a movie.

The site has content before April 1, 2026

The site has content before May 1, 2026

There is a report that the registration is hacked or otherwise not deliberate by the government

It redirects to another domain before 12:00am EST May 1, 2026 (If no site before deadline, resolves NO.)

It's going to be used for an April fools joke.

It will have its own Wikipedia page by 5/1

It has a cookie consent banner/notice while viewed from any New York state VPN before 12:00am EST May 1, 2026 (If no site before deadline, resolves NO.)

The government, bored of just selling pardons, has moved on to selling ".gov" domain names to 3rd party private organisations and/or individuals, and this is one of those times.

contains debunked media of space alien activity [N/A – start of 2027]

Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth

Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders

ACCEPTED: Don't use the bomb before it reaches 10K (minimum)

Donate to Mriya https://manifold.markets/ArtemAvramenko/will-the-mriya-fund-raise-2-million?r=TG9yZWxhaQ

ACCEPTED: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive

Donate 34% to give well, 33 % to internet archive, 33% to mriya

Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council

Proposal: don't use the bomb until it reaches 20k mana kilotons

Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council

Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council

Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council

Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election

Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council

Proposal: Bet YES on the first Yes or No market posted after 1 AM EST on March 9th

Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets

Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire

Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest

Proposal: Donate it all to Givewell (PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL)

Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles

Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb

Drop a 1 kiloton "shot across the bow" spirit bomb directly on the new manifold government https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p

Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined

Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market

Proposal: a member of the security counsel can be voted off with a supermajority of its members >66%

Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users

Proposal: Create a ticking mechanism with a mana goal and a deadline, such that either: 1) the deadline is reached and the bomb is detonated, or 2) the mana goal is reached and the deadline is extended

Proposal: Give 10% to @geuber_

Proposal: add @AmmonLam to the security council

Proposal: Use it to develop a rival “Coolfold Partner Program,” award it as bounties to promising new/cool market creators

Proposal: Add @Tumbles to the security council

Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund

Proposal: Use the mana to buy tickets for Manifest for spirit bomb contributors who are able to make it

Proposal: Bet it on LK-99 superconductor market (YES or NO to be decided).

add @AbhinavSrinivas to the security council

Proposal: add @KongoLandwalker to the security counsil

Proposal: Cursed Boost Bomb, use it to boost the most cursed/annoying market to impact the feed of every user for days to come

Proposal: Subsidy Bomb, put the mana into one specific market, target to be determined

ACCEPTED: don't use the bomb before it reaches 5K (minimum)

ACCEPTED: require a contribution of at least 1000M for any future member to be considered for the security council

DUPLICATE - NA

ACCEPTED: security council candidates must have 20 YES positions for them to be considered

ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 100% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions.

ACCEPTED: Proposals need at least 10 more Yes positions than NO positions to be considered (YES positions minus NO positions must be 10 or more)

ACCEPTED: All proposals must have at least 80% to be considered

ACCEPTED: proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions (they can be resubmitted though)

ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 95% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions. (amending previous 100%)

ACCEPTED: change approval for resolutions to 95%, and a difference of 20 Y to N for sec council member proposals

Proposal: Poker bomb - use it to fund a massive prize pool for a coolfold poker event

Proposal: Max out a specific Manifund project (TBD)

Proposal: add @stefanie as a member of the security council

Proposal: Distribute among active players in Bronze

Proposal: Poll bomb - give chris enough mana to finish hogwarts/trump polls :)

Proposal: Stochastic Bomb: use it to make as many markets about Jose Luis Ricon and StochasticParrot as possible

Proposal: use the bomb to disrupt manifold politics conditional markets.

Proposal: Use the bomb to create a multiple choice market with 100 answers, and pour the rest into boosting it

Proposal: repeal the ban on using the bomb before it reaches 5K mana

Proposal: add a random number generator to the security council

Proposal: Disarm the bomb until April 2nd 2024

Proposal: Immolation Bomb to protest the pivot

Proposal: Disarmament & Peace, permanently deactivate the bomb

Proposal: Love Bomb, spread the mana from the bomb as subsidy among the top 100 markets on browse

Proposal: block another user's limit order on a specific market, target TBD (ie: set up a new large Limit Order that is slightly below/above theirs)

Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on any small creators or their markets, without their permission (<1000 traders)

Proposal: Found a Republican PAC to make election predictions on Manifold more accurate

Proposal: Distribute it to all the users that contributed to it evenly

Proposal: the greed ending, split the bomb evenly among members of the security council

Vacant House seats at start of term

Market chaos

Bonus market chaos

Bonus underlying chaos

Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results

Vacant Senate seats at start of term

New election ordered for any seat

Majority control discrepancy in the Senate

Majority control discrepancy in the House

Any member seated who was not the winner

Any major news organization retracts a call

Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)

Congress refuses to accept any certified result

Any member-elect changes parties

Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day

Senator not up for re-election changes party

Any election delayed

Any member-elect denied the oath of office

YES

YES

Other

Goose, Big Modern!

Hayley Kiyoko, Girls like Girls

Evanescence, Sanctuary

Afroman, Freedom of Speech

M.I.A., M.I.7.

Harry Styles, Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally

Ella Langley, Dandelion

Rosalia, Lux

Olivia Dean, The Art of Loving

Drake, Iceman

Flea, Honora

Phoebe Bridgers [tbc]

Ariana Grande, Petal

Olivia Rodrigo, You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love

21 Savage, What Happened to the Streets?

Snow tha Product, Before I Crash Out

NOFX, A to H

Alter Bridge, Alter Bridge

ASAP Rocky, Don't Be Dumb

Nick Jonas, Sunday Best

Charli XCX, Wuthering Heights

Mumford & Sons, Prizefighter

Gorillaz, The Mountain

Hillary Duff, Luck. . . Or Something

Yungblud, Idols II

BLACKPINK, DEADLINE

BTS, Arirang

Nine Inch Nails, Nine Inch Noize

Demi Lovato, It's Not That Deep

Foo Fighters, Your Favorite Toy

Jason Aldean, Songs About Us

Gracie Abrams, Daughter from Hell

Brandi Carlisle, Returning To Myself

Noah Kahan, The Great Divide

Bruno Mars, The Romantic

Taylor Swift, The Life of a Showgirl

Justin Bieber, Swag II

Rob Thomas, All Night Days

Cardi B, Am I the Drama?

Doja Cat, Vie

YES

YES

NO

NO