defence News

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026

United States troops enter Iran

Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)

Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico

Hostile military action by United States against Cuba

USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire

Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

A country declares war on Israel

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

123

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Any country leaves NATO

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

Any NATO country formally declares war on another country

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

USA leaves NATO

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

Egypt formally declares war on another country

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Successful military coup in Venezuela

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

Iran undergoes a regime change

Iran loses territory

Sudanese Civil War ends

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

China formally declares war on another country

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

A country declares war on United States

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

Israel loses territory

Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state

Iranian troops enter Israel

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.

Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action

China invades Taiwan

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

United States formally declares war on another country

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

United States formally declares war on Iran

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Israel annexes any portion of Iran

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Humans will extinct

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

call someone retarded through text or speech

Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)

A literal red line on the ground/floor

complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela

Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.

repeal or reform the dietary guidelines

request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts

explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue

complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Stays alive

Causes Tina Peters' early release

pass 500 or more executive orders

intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican

new blockade of a country

Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)

refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state

have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally

forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc

declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country

request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts

Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest

complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

put his name on a ship in the navy

request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts

Says 6 7 (or variant)

sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries

File lawsuit against a congressperson

resume buying oil from Russia

Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws

Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)

Dep

call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician

have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025

Revoke ten or more citizenships

Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes

sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission

ten or more protestors killed during term

Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO

Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities

Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools

postpones or cancels 2026 senate elections in at least one state

Raise the retirement age for social security

closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)

order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen

Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)

Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)

Nominate a family member to high office

Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS

have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason

Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson

Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture

get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia

Call for the end of the Senate

Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025

Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)

Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.

add a new federal holiday in his honor

have a journalist arrested

Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress

Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere

call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech

remove a major non NATO ally from the current list

Pardon a convicted pedophile

Pardon himself

repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025

End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)

host putin at mar a lago

Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)

Salute Putin

Enforce the Comstock Act at least once

Raise contribution limits (FEC)

federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)

force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt

complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)

Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill

issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future

department of defense renamed to Dept of war

Get rid of Noaa.

Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture

force a former president to testify before Congress

Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

appoint a family member to lead any federal agency

Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime

Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)

stops all sanctions on Russia

enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like

Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground

Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)

Withdraw from NATO

Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment

Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)

revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like

Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Implement a federal age of consent

Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system

Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation

Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps

Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.

Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election

All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump

Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

repeal Obamacare

pardon derek chauvin

classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire

admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely

Add a citizenship question to the census

confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself

confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person

debank a congressperson governor or mayor

Enact price controls on groceries

Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard

announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA

expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new

Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025

Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency

Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons

actually disinter bodies from another country

Call for the end of child marriage

Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day

Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906

change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again

orders arrests of any Biden family member

delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday

federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms

Prosecute someone for flag burning

His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory

Announce he’s running for a third term

Pardon ghislaine maxwell

cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down

Call for the death penalty of any former president by name

all time high unemployment reached

Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.

Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education

Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security

Prevent the VA from covering abortion services

Replace his Vice President

Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt

Causes derek chauvin's early release

declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon

Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection

cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason

Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)

Attack a NATO ally.

Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)

expand the borders of the usa

remove tax exempt from only certain religions

have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed

threaten to disinter bodies from another country

Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)

fauci in jail at least one week

take control of a part of ukraine

add a new state

pardon george santos

take state ownership in an airline

Postpone the elections due to emergency

Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990

ban trans people from holding federal offices

changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)

Annex any part of Mexico

ends black history month

Eliminate the DOE Loan Program

Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act

take control of a part of greenland

ban all new incoming students from china and/or india

New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)

Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.

Call for the end of gay marriage

Fully or partially privatize Social Security

Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA

Pardon p diddy

Implement a federal abortion ban

make statements that are negative about labubu

Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation

Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment

breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza

Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war

fully nationalize an airline

stop California from hosting the Olympics

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)

Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC

change or add a face on Mount Rushmore

change the borders of a state

breaks ground on a trump building in Russia

repeal an amendment

declares a white history month

Call for the end of the House of Reps

give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia

enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea

After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy

Call for the end of interracial marriage

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

bans anime

Wearing a white dress after labor day

Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace

bans 6 7

YES

YES

YES

YES

No sector shows “wide adoption” by 31 Dec 2032

Finance (portfolio optimization, risk, pricing)

Pharma / chemistry (drug or material discovery)

Cybersecurity / cryptography

Logistics / mobility (routing, supply chain, EV fleets)

YES

NO

Russia

Other

Malta

Iran

North Korea

Non state actor

China

Israel

US allies with significant US troop presence (>10% of their own active military) and/or US-land-border e.g. Germany, Japan, Bahrain, Canada

US allies with moderate US troop presence (1-10% of their own active military) e.g. UK, Italy, Spain, South Korea, Australia

Russia-China allies within connected defence pacts e.g. Belarus, Kazakhstan, North Korea

Russia-China allies outside connected defence pacts e.g. Cuba, Syria, Iran

US allies with negligible US troop presence (<1% of their own active military) but within connected defence pacts e.g. France, Brazil

US allies with negligible US troop presence and outside connected defence pacts e.g. Switzerland, Ukraine, Taiwan

Nations outside both US and Russia-China geopolitical spheres e.g. India, South Africa, Indonesia

Russia

The US

YES