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Top stories

Ukraine Hits Russian Corvette as Moscow Claims Drone Sinks Ukrainian Ship

Ukraine Hits Russian Corvette as Moscow Claims Drone Sinks Ukrainian Ship

Authors

11

1 year ago

China Warns Philippines Over Second Thomas Shoal Resupply, Threatens Countermeasures

China Warns Philippines Over Second Thomas Shoal Resupply, Threatens Countermeasures

Authors

5

1 year ago

Japan Eyes Record ¥122 Trillion Budget as Defense Drone Spending Soars

Japan Eyes Record ¥122 Trillion Budget as Defense Drone Spending Soars

Authors

24

1 year ago

FARC Dissidents Kidnap 34 Colombian Soldiers in Amazon Region

Authors

10

1 year ago

Japan to Request Record ¥8.8 Trillion Defense Budget Amid U.S. Pentagon Discontent, Fighter Jet Plans, Mitsubishi Stock Drop

Authors

4

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Defense Ministry

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM

4.97%chance

612352206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30291

3526

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.51%chance

257828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12918

7753

Will a Galactic Federation reveal itself to humanity by the end of 2050?

May 2, 2:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.13%chance

254589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2353

54

China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026

Mar 11, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.11%chance

333262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3365

297

Raul Castro dies before 2027?

Nov 22, 5:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

17.83%chance

8771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

585

41

Will China officially acknowledge its new sixth-gen tailless stealth fighter prototypes (J-36 / J-50) before 2027

Mar 7, 1:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.88%chance

5180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

362

212

Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?

Mar 29, 1:43 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

33.23%chance

10162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

71

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM

65.93%chance

12152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.65%chance

7135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

63

When violence between Russia and Ukraine formally ends, will Russia attack a non OTAN/NATO neighbour within 2 years?

Feb 22, 12:05 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

43.42%chance

590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

984

Will a spokesperson for the PRC Ministry of National Defense confirm that Dong Jun is under investigation by this date?

Dec 16, 9:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

215

OptionProbability

January 1st 2026

January 1st 2027

January 1st 2028

July 1st 2025

50

50

50

28

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