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Top stories

Ukraine Hits Russian Corvette as Moscow Claims Drone Sinks Ukrainian Ship

Ukraine Hits Russian Corvette as Moscow Claims Drone Sinks Ukrainian Ship

Authors

11

11 months ago

China Warns Philippines Over Second Thomas Shoal Resupply, Threatens Countermeasures

China Warns Philippines Over Second Thomas Shoal Resupply, Threatens Countermeasures

Authors

5

11 months ago

Japan Eyes Record ¥122 Trillion Budget as Defense Drone Spending Soars

Japan Eyes Record ¥122 Trillion Budget as Defense Drone Spending Soars

Authors

24

11 months ago

FARC Dissidents Kidnap 34 Colombian Soldiers in Amazon Region

Authors

10

1 year ago

Japan to Request Record ¥8.8 Trillion Defense Budget Amid U.S. Pentagon Discontent, Fighter Jet Plans, Mitsubishi Stock Drop

Authors

4

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Defense Ministry

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM

9.78%chance

602338438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18317

4420

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.28%chance

247049

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13556

7388

Will a Galactic Federation reveal itself to humanity by the end of 2050?

May 2, 2:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.13%chance

254589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2353

54

China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026

Mar 11, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.2%chance

323242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3345

299

Raul Castro dies before 2027?

Nov 22, 5:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

17.83%chance

8771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

585

41

Will China officially acknowledge its new sixth-gen tailless stealth fighter prototypes (J-36 / J-50) before 2027

Mar 7, 1:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.88%chance

5180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

362

212

Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?

Mar 29, 1:43 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

33.23%chance

10162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

71

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM

65.93%chance

12152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.65%chance

7135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

63

When violence between Russia and Ukraine formally ends, will Russia attack a non OTAN/NATO neighbour within 2 years?

Feb 22, 12:05 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

43.42%chance

590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

984

Will a spokesperson for the PRC Ministry of National Defense confirm that Dong Jun is under investigation by this date?

Dec 16, 9:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

215

OptionProbability

January 1st 2026

January 1st 2027

January 1st 2028

July 1st 2025

50

50

50

28

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