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Top stories

Kenyan Deputy President Gachagua Cuts Short US Trip to Lead DCP By-Election Campaigns as President Ruto Dismisses Opposition Slogans

Kenyan Deputy President Gachagua Cuts Short US Trip to Lead DCP By-Election Campaigns as President Ruto Dismisses Opposition Slogans

Authors

3

6 months ago

President Ruto and Raila Lead UDA-ODM Meeting as MPs Face Extortion Claims; Anti-Graft Team Suspended, Mutai Impeachment Trial Set, Gachagua Returns

President Ruto and Raila Lead UDA-ODM Meeting as MPs Face Extortion Claims; Anti-Graft Team Suspended, Mutai Impeachment Trial Set, Gachagua Returns

Authors

4

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Democratic Change Party

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

28.88%chance

750333270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5934

3630

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3174886

OptionProbability

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

31

26

21

19

1

1

1

1

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

16273511

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

27

26

15

4

4

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Regime change in Cuba by 2030?

Jan 3, 8:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.95%chance

13623474

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1424

703

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

954

Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?

Mar 30, 2:48 AMSep 21, 3:59 AM

39.27%chance

273123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

760

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.93%chance

171609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

980

Will America remain a two-party system until February 2040?

Dec 11, 3:04 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

71.87%chance

171481

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1127

937

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.79%chance

271368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

867

Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election?

May 16, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.02%chance

141085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

783

Will America remain a two-party system until 2050?

Dec 29, 6:53 PMJan 6, 4:59 AM

68.47%chance

15375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

877

Will the current Austrian coalition last until the end of the legislature period?

Nov 26, 9:30 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM

50.62%chance

3110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

988

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