OptionProbability
Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)
Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)
Second Muslim ban
Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot
Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position
Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month
Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people
Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA
$TSLA reaches $400 a share
price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe
Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch
RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position
Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)
Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states
Federal employees are ordered to go to work
Government shutdown
A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken
Trump declassifies JFK files
The US leaves the World Health Organization
John Bolton indicted
A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported
Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)
At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES
NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)
NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker
"The New Norm" ends
trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)
Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE
New James Bond actor is presented
Republican lose a House seat in a special election
Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US
Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives
Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)
At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES
p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)
memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park
any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state
Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees
Approval < 35%
The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)
Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more
trump gets hospitalized
A new supreme court justice appointed
doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)
Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire
FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research
A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies
Polymarket becomes legal in the United States
Fair elections in 2028
A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal
Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)
3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest
The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems
Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election
USA experiences a recession.
Vances have another kid
DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices
2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart
2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025
The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point
Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs
plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East
Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country
Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi
Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference
there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)
Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days
Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice
A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act
Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader
John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader
The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25
Russo-Ukrainian War ends
Dow rises above 65,000
Trump gives himself a nickname in third person
At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES
New
US Invasion of any North/South American country
Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries
There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits
Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands
US national bitcoin reserve created
Trump visits Africa
Congress overrides a presidential veto
The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil
A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling
Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice
At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment
Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)
US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")
A measurable decrease in chronic disease
Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US
plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)
Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory
Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government
IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics
McDonald's reopens in Russia
A major war in Asia occurs
Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve
his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028
Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary
AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)
Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections
Joe Biden dies
Trump says a racial slur
Trump says anything that is pro animal rights
Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide
Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar
inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters
Trump and Obama shake hands
Tesla
Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over
Trump announces he is tired of winning
Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days
The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty
The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)
Department of Defense renamed to Department of War
New national park created
transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked
Repeal obamacare
A member of the Trump family runs for Congress
Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory
China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan
BTC falls below $38,000
Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)
A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress
Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress
Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico
<1.5 million civilian federal employees
China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty
The department of education gets desolved
Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled
Constitutional Amendment
Anthony Fauci is indicted
JD Vance elected President
Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long
Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000
A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations
Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him
War is declared against another nation
10% fewer government agencies
Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding
MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday
Steve Bannon goes to prison again
55 or more Republican senate seats
RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan
A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model
Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC
Iran acquires a nuclear weapon
Trump gets covid (again)
The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump
Approval < 25%
American Manned Lunar Landing
H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
Trump gets shot
54 or more Republican senate seats
A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress
military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit
Trump dies
Laura Loomer gets any government role
RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point
Record level unemployment
Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats
Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)
Another pandemic
One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government
John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States
Recess appointment to SCOTUS
Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits
Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day
Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year
south park is canceled/discontinued
Trump runs for a third term
The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out
Cannabis is federally legalized
Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination
Trump is assassinated
Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)
Trump extends his term past 4 years
Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people
Trump loses the fake tan
Anthony Fauci goes to prison
Trump is seen shirtless
Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets
The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem
The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known
TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD
A national ban on gender-affirming care
Starship lands on Mars
Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them
2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart
Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt
another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)
An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.
"covfefe" posted again
Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten
Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE
Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute
wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate
Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's
30 year treasury rate >15.00%
Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way
Constitutional Amendment
Ann Selzer arrested
Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking
A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically
Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US
Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears
Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle
Trump bans abortion nationwide
Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border
Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program
Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.
Major Yellowstone caldera scare
Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement
Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital
Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)
Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government
Trump and Melania divorce
SpaceX is nationalized
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump enacts jus primae noctis
Anthony Fauci is convicted
Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r
New US national anthem
Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
A hurricane will be nuked
Jimmy Carter dies
Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026
Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat
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OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela
Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
pass 500 or more executive orders
Stays alive
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
new blockade of a country
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
put his name on a ship in the navy
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
have a journalist arrested
Pardon himself
Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes
Revoke ten or more citizenships
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
Causes Tina Peters' early release
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
ten or more protestors killed during term
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
File lawsuit against a congressperson
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
Nominate a family member to high office
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Dep
Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
add a new federal holiday in his honor
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
Raise the retirement age for social security
stops all sanctions on Russia
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
resume buying oil from Russia
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
force a former president to testify before Congress
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
Postpone the elections due to emergency
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
Enact price controls on groceries
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
Add a citizenship question to the census
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
host putin at mar a lago
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
expand the borders of the usa
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
Prosecute someone for flag burning
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Pardon a convicted pedophile
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
Get rid of Noaa.
Says 6 7 (or variant)
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Causes derek chauvin's early release
Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)
Call for the end of the House of Reps
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
take control of a part of greenland
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
repeal Obamacare
pardon derek chauvin
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
actually disinter bodies from another country
Call for the end of child marriage
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
orders arrests of any Biden family member
Annex any part of Mexico
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
Replace his Vice President
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
ends black history month
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
Salute Putin
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
declares a white history month
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
fauci in jail at least one week
take control of a part of ukraine
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
add a new state
pardon george santos
take state ownership in an airline
Attack a NATO ally.
Pardon p diddy
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
Implement a federal age of consent
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
Call for the end of gay marriage
Announce he’s running for a third term
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
make statements that are negative about labubu
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
fully nationalize an airline
Call for the end of the Senate
Implement a federal abortion ban
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
ban trans people from holding federal offices
stop California from hosting the Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
change the borders of a state
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
repeal an amendment
Withdraw from NATO
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
Call for the end of interracial marriage
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
bans anime
bans 6 7
all time high unemployment reached
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
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OptionProbability
"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"
empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs
"lower taxes"
"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"
"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"
"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"
"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"
"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"
"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"
"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"
"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"
"stop all COVID mandates"
"keep men out of women’s sports"
"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"
"more jobs for American workers"
"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"
"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"
"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"
"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"
"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"
"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"
"bigger paychecks"
"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"
"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"
"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"
"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"
"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"
"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"
"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"
"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"
"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"
"cut the number of school administrators"
"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"
declassify the 'Epstein files'
"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"
"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"
"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"
"increase fairness through price transparency"
"passing a digital bill of rights"
"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"
"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"
"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"
"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"
"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"
"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"
"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"
"end surprise medical billing"
"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"
"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"
"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"
"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"
"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"
"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"
"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"
"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"
"keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars"
100
88
82
74
71
71
65
63
63
63
63
58
57
56
53
50
47
45
45
44
44
42
42
42
42
40
40
40
40
39
37
36
36
35
34
31
31
31
30
28
27
27
26
26
24
23
19
18
18
17
16
16
13
11
7
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
15284
6552
OptionProbability
An executive order is issued and upheld requiring all federal agencies to use the new name?
It changes on Google Maps?
The Interior Secretary orders the name change?
Louisiana changes the name on official state documents and maps?
USGS updates Geographic Names Information System, or G.N.I.S., to reflect the name change?
Florida changes name on official documents and maps
Texas changes the name on official state documents and maps?
The Department of Defense mandates the use of the new name in all military operations and documents?
Alabama changes name on official documents and maps?
NOAA officially adopts the new name in all nautical charts and documentation?
The President requires states to change references to the name in order receive federal aid?
A joint resolution of Congress (not from MTG) approves the name change?
Legislation drafted by Marjorie Taylor Greene is passed by Congress and signed by the President?
The Foreign Names Committee of the US Bureau of Geographic Names approves a change to the official name?
The International Hydrographic Organization approves the change?
Mexico agrees to the name change through diplomatic channels?
A treaty between the U.S., Mexico, and Cuba establishes the new name?
100
100
100
100
100
100
80
65
59
48
27
24
17
9
8
3
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1089
919
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1953
512
OptionProbability
Not before 31 December 2030
in 2030
in 2028
in 2029
in 2027
in 2026
82
6
4
4
2
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1636
611
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1085
858
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1168
856
OptionProbability
Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives
Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)
Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs
Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies
Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies
55
53
51
50
28







