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Top stories

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth Orders Army to Create Joint Interagency Task Force 401 Integrating Multi-Agency Mobile Counter-Drone Systems

Executive Orders

US Foreign Policy

US Domestic Policy

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth Orders Army to Create Joint Interagency Task Force 401 Integrating Multi-Agency Mobile Counter-Drone Systems

Authors

5

1 year ago

ICE Deportations Under Trump Surge Toward Decade High

US Domestic Policy

ICE Deportations Under Trump Surge Toward Decade High

Authors

10

1 year ago

Trump Administration Readies Large-Scale ICE Operation in Chicago After Labor Day

US Domestic Policy

Trump Administration Readies Large-Scale ICE Operation in Chicago After Labor Day

Authors

10

1 year ago

Judge Orders Shutdown of Florida’s $218 Million ‘Alligator Alcatraz’

Authors

13

1 year ago

US Domestic Policy

Natural Disasters

FEMA Suspends Dozens of Staff After Letter Warns of Katrina-Scale Disaster

Authors

76

1 year ago

US Domestic Policy

Trump Administration, DHS and ICE Seek $6.1 Billion From Immigrants With 21,500 Fines to Pressure Self-Deportation

Authors

8

1 year ago

US Gov Appointments

US Domestic Policy

Trump Appoints Controversial Researcher Heather Honey to DHS Election Role

Authors

12

1 year ago

Executive Orders

US Domestic Policy

Trump Administration, Kristi Noem Accelerate 8-Kilometer Border Wall Construction in Starr and Hidalgo Counties with Environmental Waiver

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Department of Homeland Security

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

5.02%chance

199687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8375

385

Conditional on Trump being elected, how many H1B recipients will be admitted in the USA in 2026?

Jul 27, 5:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43380

OptionProbability

480000-500000

500000-520000

520000-540000

460000-480000

440000-460000

420000-440000

540000-560000

560000-580000

40000-60000

60000-80000

80000-100000

100000-120000

120000-140000

140000-160000

160000-180000

340000-360000

360000-380000

380000-400000

400000-420000

580000-600000

0-20000

20000-40000

180000-200000

200000-220000

220000-240000

240000-260000

260000-280000

280000-300000

300000-320000

320000-340000

600000-620000

620000-640000

640000-660000

660000-680000

680000-700000

700000-720000

720000-740000

740000-760000

760000-780000

780000-800000

800000-820000

820000-840000

840000-860000

860000-880000

880000-900000

900000-920000

19

19

19

14

4

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be deported to El Salvador before 2029?

Jun 7, 3:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.88%chance

121332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1836

545

Will ICE be renamed as NICE in 2026?

Apr 27, 3:30 AMJan 1, 4:27 AM

23.35%chance

181074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

55

Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027

Feb 9, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

12669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

If confirmed, will Markwayne Mullin be DHS Secretary until 19 Jan 2029?

Mar 20, 5:04 AMJan 19, 12:00 AM

46.47%chance

12392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1166

828

Any Senate-confirmed Cabinet member impeached this Presidential term?

Jan 15, 12:40 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

40.69%chance

12306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

Most blocked non-government account on Bluesky at the end of 2026

Dec 31, 9:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6210

OptionProbability

Other

Jesse Singal (@jessesingal.com)

Go4Know (@go4know.com)

Now Breezing (@nowbreezing.ntw.app)

86

6

5

3

Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:27 PM

38.02%chance

9200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

97

ICE still exists in 2030?

Jun 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.15%chance

11185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

157

64

Will WMDs be used for an attack on the U.S. by 2036?

Feb 20, 8:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

51

Will Anthony Fauci go to prison before 2029?

Sep 19, 3:09 AMDec 31, 10:00 AM

8.01%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

93

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