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Prediction markets for Department of State
OptionVotes
185221
53989
If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?
Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM
15.73%chance
16740693
OptionVotes
24642
5236
Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?
Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.7%chance
3134762
OptionVotes
25099
3984
Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?
Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
19.65%chance
9122191
OptionVotes
14513
8421
Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.63%chance
3315534
OptionVotes
15062
6649
OptionProbability
75
9
6
6
2
2
Will Trump "Sell Out" Taiwan Under Rubio's State Department
Nov 8, 12:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM
32.16%chance
173978
OptionVotes
1453
688
Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?
Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
55.84%chance
301176
OptionVotes
1085
858
OptionProbability
80
66
66
66
65
62
55
55
55
52
48
48
47
47
43
40
36
36
33
32
will the US department of state issue surveillance-related travel warnings to people who visit china by EOY2028??
Apr 15, 6:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
85%chance
10297
OptionVotes
238
42
OptionProbability
53
25
17
4
What changes will Trump make to the Department of Education by the end of his term? Will he kill the Department and how?
Dec 19, 9:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
764
OptionProbability
26
20
20
11
8
8
7
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