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Prediction markets for Department of State
OptionVotes
224793
44485
Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?
Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.76%chance
2426325
OptionVotes
32266
3099
Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?
Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
19.65%chance
9122191
OptionVotes
14513
8421
Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.28%chance
247049
OptionVotes
13556
7388
OptionVotes
3243
194
Will Trump "Sell Out" Taiwan Under Rubio's State Department
Nov 8, 12:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM
34.04%chance
173948
OptionVotes
1392
718
OptionProbability
72
10
7
7
2
2
Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?
Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
55.84%chance
301176
OptionVotes
1085
858
OptionProbability
80
66
66
66
65
62
55
55
55
52
48
48
47
47
43
40
36
36
33
32
OptionProbability
52
24
19
4
will the US department of state issue surveillance-related travel warnings to people who visit china by EOY2028??
Apr 15, 6:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
67.2%chance
8138
OptionVotes
143
70
What changes will Trump make to the Department of Education by the end of his term? Will he kill the Department and how?
Dec 19, 9:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
764
OptionProbability
26
20
20
11
8
8
7
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