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Prediction markets for DIA

Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2025?

Dec 26, 4:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.1%chance

16927440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2861

428

Will I be diagnosed with high-functioning autism before 2025?

Jun 2, 6:13 PMApr 15, 6:59 AM

46.41%chance

169425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21548

12824

Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?

Dec 26, 6:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.58%chance

514899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

518

In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?

Mar 10, 12:37 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.11%chance

724702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1356

1253

Who will be elected as the new portuguese president in January 2026?

Mar 25, 3:37 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

93535

OptionProbability

Henrique Gouveia e Melo

Luís Marques Mendes

André Ventura

António José Seguro

António Sampaio da Nóvoa

Paulo Portas

Tim Vieira

André Pestana

Orlando Cruz

Aristides Teixeira

Manuela Magno

Mariana Leitão

António Vitorino

Joana Amaral Dias

31

21

13

12

12

12

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

4

Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?

Jan 12, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.93%chance

363190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

886

Will King Charles survive his cancer diagnosis?

Feb 5, 6:33 PMFeb 13, 5:59 AM

48.83%chance

542590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

939

Which STF judge will leave the court with less than 74 years old?

Mar 12, 3:32 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

2120

OptionProbability

Alexandre de Moraes

Luís Roberto Barroso

Gilmar Mendes

Cármen Lúcia

Dias Toffoli

Luiz Fux

Edson Fachin

Nunes Marques

André Mendonça

Cristiano Zanin

Flávio Dino

55

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

DIA Stock (Permanent)

Nov 23, 11:58 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

391

OptionProbability

NO

YES

101

81

Will SotA on SWE-Lancer (Diamond) reach 400K USD (80%) in 2025?

Apr 7, 2:51 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

49.79%chance

424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5014

4986

Will Ranga Dias have his Ph.D revoked before 2030?

Jul 29, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.55%chance

211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99

82

Which diagram resource URI pattern will become the MCP standard by end of 2025?

Apr 3, 5:30 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

diagram://host/id

diag://host/id/version

diagram+http://host/id

mcp://diagram/id

resource://mcp/diagram/id

20

20

20

20

20

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